Ultimate Stock Finder

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing Nov. 9, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 9, 2013:

Remember Investment Idea Sharing monthly meeting is 7:30PM next Tuesday Nov. 12, 2013 at my house.

Weblink to this table:http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 15,797. World wide indexes finished the week mixed.

I still think the markets are overpriced. But, I am always looking for good values, and this week I found EXC (Exelon, electric utility, 4.3% dividend) and EZPW (EZ Corp, pay day loans and pawn). Instead of buying them, I sold PUT’s with strike prices below the 52 week lows for each stock, see below in “Stock Buys for this Week”

EXC is at a 10 year low because EXC is the largest nuclear power utility in America (17 reactors which generate 20% of the US Nuclear industry’s power capacity) but the stock market is concerned about nuclear costs being uncompetitive when compared to the extremely low prices right now for natural gas. I believe that EXC will come back and it pays a 4.3% dividend while we wait.

Here is a Forbes article describing this current situation for EXC:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2013/11/06/nuclear-keeps-exelon-bright/

Here is the 10 year chart for EXC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EXC#symbol=exc;range=20031017,20131104;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

EZPW has been on the Stock Evaluator “Short List” for the past 3 weeks, and this week reported for year end 2013 with only a small increase in annual revenues and a decrease in profits, though still profitable. These numbers dropped EZPW stock price from $15.71 on Monday to $11.34 on Friday, which is a 5 year low. I believe the market has overreacted.

Here is an article summarizing EZPW fiscal year end report for Sept. 30, 2013:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ezcorp-reports-2013-revenues-more-124500068.html

Here is the 10 year chart for EZPW: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EZPW+Interactive#symbol=ezpw;range=20030620,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

StockEvaluator “Short List”

No ‘Short List’ this week due to continued Yahoo Finance data feed problems. Please use FinViz.com link.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4

This week’s FinViz screen returned 8 companies: CIG, LF, MDC, MIL, RCII, SENEA, SGM, ZA.

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

No ‘Volatility Sort’ this week due to Yahoo Finance data feed problems. Please use FinViz.com link. http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u3,fa_ps_u2,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h,ta_volatility_wo6&ft=4

This week, 2 companies are on the FinViz list. They are: IRG , RTK

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 38 funds. All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 5% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession. Remember, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down. These bond funds only pay about a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels. So we lose a whole year’s worth of interest if we buy back in too soon. For example, PRGMX closed the week at $9.52, down from 2011 high of $10.22, but still above 2007 low of $9.14. My target buy price for PRGMX is $9.35.

Here is the 10 year chart for PRGMX that shows these price ranges:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PRGMX+Interactive#symbol=prgmx;range=20011213,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal. As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down. The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.75%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%. My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.

Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=19991021,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ----- ------------

none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

----- --------- ------- ------- ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option Sell Stock Strike Expiration Option

Type Date Symbol Price Date Price

------ ------ -------- ------ ---------- --------

PUT 11/8 EXC $28 Apr 2014 $1.80

PUT 11/8 EZPW $12.50 Mar 2014 $1.30

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article. Please see our full legal disclaimer at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

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Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

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At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

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Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values.

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“Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls And How to Use It”

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"S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

"Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

Screener for New 52 week lows

Screener for Good Fundamental Values

Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes.

Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

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Sunday, November 3, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing Nov. 3, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 2, 2013:

Weblink to this table:http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the world wide indexes finished the week mixed. I can not find a good reason for why the Hang Seng (HSI, Hong Kong) was up so much (2.4%). Also notice that Asian and South American markets: HSI (Hong Kong), SSE (China), KOSPI (South Korea), BOVESPA (Brazil) have ALL NOT participated in the huge 2013 rally of about 20% that the U.S., Japanese and the European indices have done.

I still think the markets are overpriced. One value I check to confirm if stock is overpriced is the P/E ratio. I prefer to buy stocks with a P/E under 15, so when the overall stock markets are above P/E of 15, I view them as being too high. On the Ultimate Stock Finder “Links” page, I have put links the P/E Ratios for many of the worldwide market indices.

http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/websearchlinksindex.html

Index Current P/E

Dow 30 17.0

S&P 500 20.3

NASDAQ 24.3

FTSE 100 27.5

DAX 22.7

This week I was not able to get the data from Yahoo Finance to populate my Stock Evaluator spreadsheet. Yahoo was too busy and refused to answer my data queries. For the past few months, Trey and I have been testing out the FinViz.com customizable stock screener because it provides almost the same screening criteria that we use in Stock Evaluator. Here is the link to FinViz.com that approximates the “Short List” that I have been running every week:

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4

Today, this FinViz screen returned 5 companies: EZPW, MIL, RCII, SENEA, TWI. I checked these against Last Week’s “Short List” and 2 of them (EZPW , TWI) were on last week’s list. So, there is some commonality between FinViz and my Short List. Until I can get Stock Evaluator working, I am going to use FinViz.com.

StockEvaluator “Short List”

No ‘Short List’ this week due to Yahoo Finance data feed problems. Please use FinViz.com link.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4

This week, 5 companies are on the FinViz list. They are: EZPW, MIL, RCII, SENEA, TWI.

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

This week, 2 companies are on the FinViz list. They are: ACCO , RTK

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 26 funds. All are Bond funds, which are still 5 to 10% above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower. I expect that we will now have to wait until 2014 when the new FED chairperson is sworn in before the FED will agree to any interest rate increases.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com