Sunday, August 23, 2015

Investment Idea Sharing Aug. 22, 2015

Investment Idea Sharing – August 22, 2015 
Starting now, I am changing this newsletter to be every month instead of every week.

See below for my personal stock market Buys or Sells for the past month:
Buy Stock/ Fund:                       
Sell Stock/Fund:  UVXY , UCO , USO

Sell (to Open) Covered CALL:   
Buy (To Close) Covered Call:               

Sell (to Open) Cash Secured PUT:  
Buy (to Close) Cash Secured PUT:         

See the details on each of these transactions below the Weekly Summary table.

The world market indices were ALL DOWN over the past month.  Over the past month, the Dow is down 9.0% and the S&P 500 is down 7.3%.  Both indices are now down for 2015, Dow by 7.6% and S&P by 4.3%.  Several reasons:  China devalued their currency; The FED may raise interest rates here in the U.S.; the price of oil continues to drop and has now dropped from $110 / barrel a year ago to $40 now; and disappointing corporate profits.    


The price of oil went DOWN this week and ended at $40.45, down from $42.50 last week. 

Monthly (was Weekly) Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values:


Here are my Stock / Fund BUYs for This Week:
Symbol:  
Buy Date:
Buy Price:
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock / Fund SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol: UVXY
Sell Date:  August 10, 2015
Sell Price: $24.50
Buy Price:  various from $110 to $30
Buy Date:  various from Jan 2015 to July 2015
I was sure that the market was going to drop and make a correction, but I did not know when.  I was so sure that I continued buying UVXY from January to July 2015 as UVXY went down and  the market continued to go up against all of my logic.  By the end of July I had way too much of my portfolio tied up in UVXY and had lost a significant amount of money with no end in sight.  I decided that even if the market DID take the drop I was waiting for, and UVXY was to jump up, I would still never recoup all of my losses.  So I sold to stop the bleeding while my UVXY was still worth something.  On August 17, the market started the drop I had waited for since January and UVXY went from $25 on Aug. 17 up to $42 by August 21.  My big personal lesson here was I must never again put so much money on any one investment that I cannot afford to lose it and then have to get out before the investment has time to turn back up.  

Stock Symbol: USO
Sell Date:  August 14, 2015
Sell Price: $15.00
Buy Price:  $20
Buy Date:  various from Jan 2015 to June 2015
Same story as with UVXY above, I was so sure that oil would come back that I kept on buying USO as the price went down.  Same investing life lesson for me.  The only difference here is that after I sold my USO at $15, it continued going down and ended this week at $13.23

Stock Symbol: UCO
Sell Date:  August 14, 2015
Sell Price: $23.00
Buy Price:  $45
Buy Date:  various from Jan 2015 to June 2015
Same story as with USO above, I was so sure that oil would come back that I kept on buying UCO as the price went down.  Same investing life lesson for me.  The only difference here is that after I sold my UCO at $23, it like USO, continued going down and ended this week at $19.47

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download our Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.
I lost so much money from my retirement accounts with my poor choices of UVXY and USO and that I need to go back to work to be sure that my retirement savings will last me for at least 30 years til age 91.  I am interviewing with my former employer and several other companies in the same kind of military electronics business locally. 

But, along with that, I still need to manage my remaining retirement accounts to provide me a consistent and stable long term retirement income.  My first task is to take the 30% of my portfolio that is now back in cash and find a few fundamentally strong companies and mutual funds that are paying good dividends in the range of 5%.

I have added several custom macro sort commands to StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to provide easy to run searches that will screen for the kinds of companies and funds that I think will provide this safe long term income to me.

StockEvaluator Custom Screening choices:
Download ‘StockEvaluator’ here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator.xls

Click on “Button C - Dividend Screener” to get a quick screened list of fundamentally good companies paying greater than a 3.5% dividend.  I am using this list as a starting point for my research on what to buy. 

Mutual Fund Evaluator Custome Screening Choices
Download ‘MutualFundEvaluator’ here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/mutualfundevaluator.xls

I made 3 macro screeners to look for funds that are as good or better than my 3 favorite fund holdings.  I have held these 3 mutual funds for between 5 to 20 years and want to buy more of these same types of funds.

Loomis Sayles Bond Fund (LSBRX) buys intermediate term high yield bonds and has outperformed most of its bond fund competition over the past 25 years.  Annual dividend is currently 3.5% taxable.  Click Button C to run this “Better than LSBRX” screen.

Fidelity Contra Fund (FCNTX) buys excellent large cap companies and has out performed most other mutual funds over the past 5, 10 and 25 years.  Annual return is >12% for the past 25 years.  Click Button D to run this “Better than FCNTX” screen.

Vanguard Long Term Municipal Bond Fund (VWLTX) buys excellent muni bonds and has outperformed most of its muni bond competition over the past 25 years.  Annual dividend is currently 3.7% tax-free.  Click Button E to run this “Better than VWLTX” screen.

After you run each of these screeners, you must always put the spreadsheet back to where it started by Clicking Button A “Turn On / Off Data –Filter-Auto Filter Command”.  Then click Button Q to restore the spreadsheet to the Ascending sort on Industry & Symbol.  Then you can click any button to run a different screener.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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