Saturday, December 28, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing December 28, 2013

This Week's Activity – December 28, 2013: 
We are always adding content to our Ultimate Stock Finder website.  More investing links, articles, spreadsheet tools, etc.  There is now so much valuable information at our site that we have added a Google search bar at the top of the home page to help guide you to whatever information you need.  Check it out here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/

Check out Ultimate Stock Finder’s new training video that shows How to Change the Screening Limits in Stock Evaluator ‘Short List’ to be your preferred limits for the 12 fundamental values: 

Click here to see the Stock Evaluator ‘Row-by-Row’ Comparison video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bBBo4HGIJM

This week, all of the world market indices were up on the good economic reports about U.S. GDP, retail sales, unemployment and job creation.  Read more here: http://news.yahoo.com/big-ends-wall-street-hopeful-2014-212238837--sector.html
I still think the markets are overpriced but I continue looking for good values on individual stocks of good solid companies. 

Click here to see our Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values for this week: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

Ultimate Stock Finder is also on Facebook, you can ‘Like’ us on FB and receive our weekly ‘Investment Idea Sharing’ letter (summary paragraph only) to your FB page.  https://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

You can read our weekly ‘Investment Idea Sharing’ letter at our Ultimate Stock Finder blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Visit our website: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ for more investing ideas, links, training and information.


















This week I bought LeapFrog (LF) at $7.90. See the details below in (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week.  LF closed this week at $7.89 which is near their 18 month low.  Revenue is up 4%, profit margin is 13%, but stock price is down from $11.50 in July due to a software glitch on their newly released LeapPad Ultra this summer.  They have corrected the glitch, but now are gaining more competitors (Amazon, Apple, Samsung) in the education tablet business.  LeapFrog already had VTech as a competitor.  So there are many downward pressures on LF stock, but they have good fundamentals, and I think they can compete with these rivals and will recover from this.  

See these articles for current problems being faced by LF:


See the Yahoo Profile for LF at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=LF+Profile  


StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy. 
View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/short_list_12_criteria.JPG

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are: CAJ, PTR, UMC, CHA.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are: ENZN, NATL, IOC, PSMI, HLT   

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. 
This week’s list has 43 funds.  All except 1 (FRIFX) are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 7% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think the bond prices will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels which mean 10 Year Bond interest rate of at least 3.5% compared to today’s 10 year rate of 3.01%.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I do not want to lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol: LF
Buy Date:  12/26/2013
Buy Price:  $7.90
Target Sell Price: $11.50

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Expiration Date:
Strike Price:
Option Price:

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download all Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________


To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name. 

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for December 21, 2013

This Week's Activity – December 21, 2013: 
Check out Ultimate Stock Finder’s new training videos that show how to quickly create ‘Row-by-Row’ comparison views in both Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets so you can easily compare the key fundamental values for any number of stocks or mutual funds you are analyzing. 
Click here to see the Stock Evaluator ‘Row-by-Row’ Comparison video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bBBo4HGIJM

Click here to see the Mutual Fund Evaluator ‘Row-by-Row’ Comparison video: 

This week, most of the world market indices were up on the good economic reports about U.S. GDP, unemployment and job creation.  Also, this week, the Federal Reserve announced it would decrease its bond buying by $10 billion a month (from $85B to $75B) starting in January 2014.  The markets had been expecting this “tapering” of bond buying for several months and did not panic when finally hearing the official announcement.  Read more here: http://news.yahoo.com/stock-futures-climb-economic-confidence-gdp-tap-121450873--sector.html
I still think the markets are overpriced but I continue looking for good values on individual stocks of good solid companies. 

Click here to see the Summary Table with Worldwide Market Index Closing values for this week: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

Ultimate Stock Finder is also on Facebook, you can ‘Like’ us on FB and receive our weekly ‘Investment Idea Sharing’ letter (summary paragraph only) to your FB page.  https://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

You can also read our complete weekly ‘Investment Idea Sharing’ letter by following our Ultimate Stock Finder blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Visit our website: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ for more investing ideas, links, training and information.

This week I sold a Cash Secured PUT on Newmont Mining (NEM).  See the details below in (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week.  NEM closed this week at $22.64, a 5 year low.  Revenue is down 20%, profit is -$704 Million due to low gold prices and also major problems getting a new mine started (see article link below).  But, NEM still has fairly low debt to equity, no goodwill to equity, and $1.5 Billion in cash.  I believe NEM can recover from this current slump. 


See the Yahoo Profile for NEM at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NEM+Profile  

See the Yahoo 10 year chart for NEM at

StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy.  View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stock_evaluator_screener.html

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are:  CAJ, PTR, UMC, CHA.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are: EGO, IAG, IMG.TO, NGD, ZA.   

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. 
This week’s list has 40 funds.  All except 1 (FRIFX) are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 8% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think the bond prices will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels which mean 10 Year Bond interest rate of 3.5% compared to today’s 10 year rate of 2.89%.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I do not want to lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date:
Buy Price:
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option: PUT
Stock Symbol: NEM
Sell Date: Dec. 20, 2013
Expiration Date: June 21, 2014
Strike Price: $22
Option Price: $2.35

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download all Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________


To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name. 

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing December 14, 2013

This Week's Activity – December 14, 2013: 

This week, all the world market indices were down for the second week in a row.  I still think the markets are overpriced but I continue looking for good values on individual stocks of good solid companies. 

This week I sold a Cash Secured PUT on Blackberry (BBRY).  See the details below in (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week.  BBRY closed this week at $6.08, but hit a 10 year low of $5.44 this week.  Revenue is down 45%, profit is -$938 Million due to major problems competing with the other smartphones on the market.  But, BBRY still has $0 debt, $2.34 Billion in cash and a new CEO, John Chen.  I believe BBRY can recover from this current slump. 

See this article for current problems being faced by BBRY: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-stock-declines-company-innovation-181137015.html

See the Yahoo Profile for BBRY at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BBRY+Profile  


StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens to 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy.  View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits.

‘Short List’ starts with my screening limits for these 12 criteria:
     1. Price / Earnings < 20
     2. Price / Sales < 1.5
     3. Price / Book Value < 2
     4. Enterprise Value / Revenue < 1.5
     5. Enterprise Value / EBITDA < 6.5
     6. Debt / Equity < 80%
     7. Goodwill / Equity < 50%
     8. Revenue Growth > 0%
     9. Profit Margin > 0%
   10. Current Price < 15% Above 52 Week Low
   11. Dividend > 1%
   12. Dividend Payout Ratio < 70%
‘Short List’ screener will find stocks meeting these limits.  Then I do my final research to determine if the stock is truly a good buy.  The ‘Short List’ screener will quickly show me if there are any good fundamental value stocks every week.  Since the screening criteria are so strict, there may be some weeks when no stock is good enough to make this list.

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are:  CAJ, CVX, PTR, UMC.
These are four good fundamental stocks that all have P/E below 15, Dividends above 2%, Debt to Equity < 60%, Goodwill to Equity < 6%, Annual Revenue Growth 2% or more.  But these 4 are still 10 to 12% above their 52 Week lows, and I will not buy until they get within 5% of 52 Week Low.  But they are on my Yahoo Finance Watchlist with a Low Limit set at that 5% price drop value.    

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
There are 12 stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week. 

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 37 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 8% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I will lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, BGNMX closed this week at $10.65, down from 2011 high of $11.30, but still 8% above 2007 low of $9.89.  My target buy price for BGNMX is $10.45.
Here is the 10 year chart for BGNMX that shows these price ranges:

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.87%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.
Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, January 14, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date:
Buy Price:
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option: PUT
Stock Symbol: BBRY
Sell Date: Dec. 9, 2013
Expiration Date: June 21, 2014
Strike Price: $6
Option Price: $1.00

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed every weekend into StockEvaluator which contains over 3,000 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 1,200 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:



To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing December 7, 2013

This Week's Activity – December 7, 2013: 
The next Investment Idea Sharing monthly meeting is this Tuesday, Dec. 10
at my house at 7:30PM.


This week, all the world market indices were down.  Possibly just taking a small break after the great run up of 2013. Here is a good article that presents some facts and charts trying to show we are NOT in a stock market bubble yet.  http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/3-signs-were-not-in-a-stock-bubble.html/?ref=YFI still think the markets are overpriced, but this article reminds me that I really am not capable of predicting where the markets are going.  Which brings me back to the fact that as a conservative fundamental value investor, I must continue looking for under priced stocks of good solid companies.  

On Tuesday, I attended an online class from Charles Schwab called “Strategic Trading in Today’s Market”.  They had several excellent charts showing current market trends that helped me continue to believe that the market is over priced.  You can see these same slides and you may disagree with me.  Here is the link to their excellent slides:  http://wcc.on24.com/event/72/30/67/rt/1/documents/slidepdf/trading_with_a_macro_perspective_1_24virtual.pdf  Pay particular attention to Slide 5 that shows Margin Debt > $401Billion in Sept. 2013, an all time high.  And Slide 17 that shows how similar the run up of the S&P 500 was from 2003 to 2007 as compared to now, 2009 to 2013.

StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
This week, I have changed the ‘Short List’ screen to require a stock to meet stricter criteria beyond <5% above 52 week low and <5 Red cells.  ‘Short List’ now screens to additional fundamental value limits that I look for in a stock before considering it as a possible buy.
‘Short List’ now includes these added screening criteria:
     1. Price / Earnings < 20
     2. Price / Sales < 1.5
     3. Price / Book Value < 2
     4. Enterprise Value / Revenue < 1.5
     5. Enterprise Value / EBITDA < 6.5
     6. Debt / Equity < 80%
     7. Goodwill / Equity < 50%
     8. Revenue Growth > 0%
     9. Profit Margin > 0%
   10. Current Price Above 52 Week Low < 15%
   11. Dividend > 1%
   12. Dividend Payout Ratio < 60%

‘Short List’ screener will now screen for stocks that meet these limits.  Then I will do more research to determine if each stock is truly a good buy.  This new ‘Short List’ screen will quickly show me these good fundamental value stocks every week.  Since these new ‘Short List’ screening criteria are much stricter, there may be some weeks when no stock is good enough to make this list.

Stocks on the “Short List” this week are:  CAJ , UMC
Neither are within 5% of their 52 week lows.  I have owned UMC since 2009 due to its 2.4% dividend, and will not buy any more if it drops lower.  But, I would like to own CAJ when it gets back down to its 52 week low.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the “Volatility” list this week are: NTWK, GMAN
Both are less than $1 Billion in revenues, so I am not interested in either.
   
MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’ shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 35 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, and all are still 3 to 7% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I could lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, BGNMX closed this week at $10.65, down from 2011 high of $11.30, but still 8% above 2007 low of $9.89.  My target buy price for BGNMX is $10.45.
Here is the 10 year chart for BGNMX that shows these price ranges:

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.88%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.
Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, December 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date:
Buy Price:
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Expiration Date:
Strike Price:
Option Price:

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed every weekend into StockEvaluator which contains over 3,000 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 1,200 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:



To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.