Saturday, September 28, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for Sept. 28, 2013

This Week's Activity – September 28, 2013:


The Dow Jones 30 Industrials stock market index has been staying around 15,000 since May 7.  See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

By this Tuesday, Oct. 1, our Congress must vote to either Raise the National Debt Limit or Shut Down the Government (non-essential services only).  In case they call me to cast the deciding vote (?), I did some research to determine how our current National Debt and Budget Deficit numbers compare to average historical values from the past.

Chart #1:  Debt is currently 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Over the past 30 years this has averaged about 60%. 


Chart #2:  Government Spending in 2012 was 23% of GDP (50 year avg. is 20%).  Government Revenue in 2012 was 16% of GDP (50 yr. avg. is 18%.
Weblink to this table: 


Chart #3:  Government Budget Deficit in 2013 is 6.4% of GDP.  40 year avg. is 3%). 

It appears that our revenues, spending and budget deficit values, even though getting better over the past 2 years, are all still out of line with their historical averages.  There is still more work to be done to match up spending with revenues so the deficit can continue to go down.

StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells. 
This week 8 companies are on the short list.  None of these look good to me this week. 

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%. 
This week 4 companies are on the Volatility list:  CLD, TWI, SFY, PTGI
See email of Sept. 14 for my analysis of PTGI.  The other 3 do not look good to me.

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 45 funds.  Just like the past few weeks, All but 1 are Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates.  I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower.  The one non-Bond fund on the list is FRIFX a Fidelity Stock Real Estate REIT fund.   It is down almost 10% from its 52 week high, and back to its 52 week low but still 10% above the 2 year low.  I will wait for it to go lower before considering it as a buy.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, October 8, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
9/24   GFI       $4.60    $6.50
GFI  pays a 3.1% dividend

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
Call     9/23    RFMD    $6     Feb. 2014    $.45
I bought RFMD in Jan 2012 at $4.45, and had sold another $6 Covered Call in Feb 2013 at $.40 that expired in Aug 2013. 

Call     9/24    IQNT    $10     Mar. 2014   $1.00
I bought IQNT in Jan 2010 at $16, it has only gone down since then, and is now losing money, so I am ready to take some of my money off the table.

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember that I am always happy to run these analyses on any stock or mutual fund you are watching. I will send you a personalized spreadsheet with the results.  Also, please send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:



To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for Sept. 21, 2013

This Week's Activity – September 21, 2013:









The Dow Jones 30 Industrials stock market index has been staying around 15,000 since May 7.  See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Continuing Wednesday’s discussion of excellent mutual funds from 4 categories, I have tabulated the top 5 funds from each category so we can easily see where their current share price is relative to their 52 week low and also to their 2009 low.  I always buy near 52 week lows, but since the bond funds are up so much over the past 4 years prior to this year’s drop, I want to know where they are compared to the their terrible lows from March 2009.

Here are the tables showing these top 5 funds in each of the 4 categories:

























These bond funds are 0 to 10% below their 52 week highs, which is not much, but WAY above their 2009 lows.  I am going to wait for at least a 15% drop.
You can also download this table as a spreadsheet from: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/excellent_bond_funds.xls
See Column I of the spreadsheet for links to Yahoo Finance 10 Year price charts for each fund, to show you their 10 year volatility.

One more thing, for those of you who remember that I own PRGMX, LSBRX, VWLTX and FCNTX (1 from each of these 4 categories) you will notice these funds did not make this “Top 5” list. That is because these top 5 selections are BETTER than those 4 funds that I selected for my portfolio several years ago.  As I buy more for each category, the funds I buy will be from these top 5 fund lists, or will have to be as good as these top 5 funds..

StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells. 
This week 11 companies are on the short list.  None of these looked good to me this week. 

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%. 
This week 5 companies are on the Volatility list:  DK, TWI, SFY, PTGI, TITN
See last weeks email for my analysis of PTGI.  This week TITN looks interesting.
TITN is Titan Machinery.  Is a network of agriculture equipment stores in U.S. and Europe.  TITN year over year (7/31/2013) revenues were up 19% but earnings were down -26%.  At $16.52 TITN is down near their 52 week low of $15.89, and near their Sept. 2010 price.  But still almost double their March 2009 low of $8.17.  P/E is 10.6, dividend is 0.0%, Cash flow is negative $12 million, Inventories increased by $176 million this most recent quarter (7/31/2013), Insider ownership is 25%.  TITN has NOT been selling any more of their stock into the market for over the past year.  I have added TITN to my watch list with a “Wake Up” price of $15.  If they get to my “Wake Up” price, I will check them again at that time to see if I want to buy them.

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 41 funds.  All but 1 are Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates.  I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower.  The one non-Bond fund on this week’s list is FRIFX a Fidelity Stock Ral Estate REIT fund.   It is down almost 10% from its 52 week high, and back to its 52 week low but still 10% above the 2 year low.  I will wait for it to go lower before considering it as a buy.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, October 8, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
9/19    BTUI      $3.12   $3.10  11/15/2011
BTUI is still losing money so I decided to get out at a break even point.

9/20    VSAT      $50     $36      11/10/2012
When VSAT jumped to $50 (from $40) in Feb. 2013, I sold a Covered Call at $50 Strike for $4.  Regrettably, 3 months later VSAT then jumped to $70, but I was locked into my Covered Call which expired this week.

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
None

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember that I am always happy to run these analyses on any stock or mutual fund you are watching. I will send you a personalized spreadsheet with the results.  Also, please send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:


To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Excellent Long Term Mutual Funds in 4 Categories

Excellent Long Term Mutual Funds in 4 Categories:

This week I screened for excellent long term performing mutual funds (>10 years) in 4 different categories, and made individual Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets to show all the financial data for the best funds I could find in each category.  All are available at UltimateStockFinder.com from the Mutual Fund Evaluator page for you to download and review.  You can also click the links below to download each spreadsheet.       

1. Conservative (taxable) bond funds with average total return > 4.3% per year for the past 25 years and down less than 10% of their total years in existence. 
The 9 funds on this list are:  PRWCX, MGFIX, HABDX, FGMNX, VFIIX, VBMFX, FGOVX, BGNMX, PRGMX

2. Aggressive (taxable) bond funds with average total return > 8.2% per year for the past 10 years and typically down less than 10% of their total years in existence.  
The 10 funds on this list are:  FNMIX, TGBAX, FAGIX, PRWCX, FPACX, USHYX, LSBRX, SPHIX, MWHYX, PRHYX

3. Large Cap (taxable) stock funds with average total return > 8.5% per year for the past 20 years and down less than 30% of their years in existence. 
The 18 funds on this list are:  FSCHX, BRUFX, FBIOX, PRNHX, FDFAX, FSCSX, STDIX, LEXCX, OTCFX, FOCPX, ACRNX, FDGRX, NAESX, MERDX, FCNTX, VPMCX, FAGIX, PRWCX

4. Municipal (tax-free) bond funds with average total return > 4.1% per year for the past   10 years and down less than 20% of their total years in existence. 
The 10 funds on this list are:  SXFIX, PRFHX, SHYTX, FAFTX, SCMBX, ELFTX, USTEX, PRTAX, SWNTX, VWLTX

I am researching these funds now because bond funds have been going down for the past 6 months as The Fed debates and maybe someday soon stops their bond buying program (Quantitative Easing) and allows interest rates to rise back up to historical levels of around 5% for Long Term 10 year bonds.  As soon as I find that these bond funds have stopped going down, I am going to use these lists as my basis for comparing and selecting what to buy.

I am definitely NOT ready to buy from the list of Large Cap Stock funds at this time, but I made this list to help keep the best ones on my radar screen for whenever the large cap stocks finally take a drop.

Please let me know if you have any other excellent funds that are not on these lists.  I will be happy to add them to Mutual Fund Evaluator for everyone else to see.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has positions in FCNTX, LSBRX and VWLTX, that are on these screening spreadsheets. We certify that this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our disclaimer at the bottom of this email.

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Disclaimer:
This disclaimer applies to all articles, blogs, posts, comments, charts, tables or any other information we publish into the public domain at our website, by email distribution, through other sites, or by any other means (the “Public Materials”)
Opinions expressed in our Public Materials and our disclosed positions are as of the date of publication, and may no longer represent our current opinions. Our opinions and positions may change as subsequent conditions vary. We do not make any commitment to publish changes to our opinions or changes in our holdings.

Data included in our Public Materials is as of the publication date, or as of any other date or date range indicated in the Public Materials, and does not represent data after the publication date, which may be substantially different.

All of our Public Materials are for informational purposes only. More factors than considered in our Public Materials should be evaluated before taking any investment action. Perform your own investment research before making any investment decision. Consider seeking professional personal investment advice before implementing your portfolio ideas.

We utilize information sources that we believe to be reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and there is no guarantee that any forecast will come to pass.

We are a free investment idea sharing website and are not compensated by our clients. We do not sell securities, and do not receive any form of revenue or incentive from anyone. We are not affiliated with any securities dealer, any fund, any fund sponsor or any company issuer of any security.

PUBLIC MATERIALS ARE NOT PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE TO ANY SPECIFIC PERSON FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. DO NOT TAKE ANY INVESTMENT ACTION BASED SOLELY ON THE CONTENTS OF ANY OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR USE OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION, AND ACCEPT NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSSES YOU INCUR IN TAKING ANY INVESTMENT ACTION. YOU ARE FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY USE YOU MAKE OF THE CONTENT OF ANY PUBIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US, AND FOR ANY LOSSES THAT OCCUR AS A RESULT OF ANY INVESTMENT ACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE UPON ANY PUBLIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS OF CAPITAL.


Saturday, September 14, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for Sept. 14, 2013

This Week's Activity – September 14, 2013:

Special thanks to Trey D. this week because he had to fix the Mutual Fund Evaluator data look up function on Saturday because it stopped working.  We download all of our financial data from several free public websites and sometimes they change their coding which then means our look up functions no longer work.  This seems to happen about every couple of months.  Each time it is a fire drill for Trey to figure out what they changed and then to change our look up function to get the data we need from the new way it is being presented by the public  website.


The Dow Jones 30 Industrials stock market index has been staying around 15,000 since May 7.  

Here is an excellent article with logical reasons why a market drop of 15% could happen soon. http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/7-signs-of-the-next-financial-crisis  I am looking at all my holdings that are below where I bought them and deciding which ones have the least probability of EVER coming back.  If their chances of coming back are low, then I should be better off to sell them now and take my loss so I can have the cash freed up to buy better companies after the next market dip.  As I make my choices and sell some of my losers, these sales will appear in the “Stock Sells for This Week” section below.  I sold nothing this week.

My 4 Rules of Investing are:
Rule #1: Don't Lose Money, Buy only good companies that won't go bankrupt, and wait until their stock price goes back up.
Rule #2: Don't Get Greedy, Sell at 10% to 20% Gain, or 5 years worth of dividend gain.
Rule #3: Be patient, Good companies won't go out of Business, dividend pays while you wait.
Rule #4: Buy Companies with Dividend & Low Debt & Low Goodwill
(These 4 Rules are always shown in the StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet at Col. W.)

Since I think a market drop is coming soon, I believe that I am still following Rule #1 (Don’t Lose Money) even when I sell stocks for a loss, because their price will go down along with the market drop, so by selling now, I am preserving the value they are at now, and not letting them go back down again.  The important task will be to find better companies or mutual funds to buy going forward.

Here is a very helpful weblink to Kiplinger.com that shows mutual fund performance for up to 20 years for 12 different categories of funds. http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/investing/T041-S001-top-performing-mutual-funds/index.php  I prefer large cap stock funds and this list shows the 10 best performing funds for the past 1, 3, 5, 10 & 20 year periods.  I used this list to be sure I have these 20 year excellent performers in Mutual Fund Evaluator.xls.

StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.  This week 8 companies are on the short list.  I researched 2 of them.

DK is Delek US Holdings, operates as an integrated downstream energy company that operates in petroleum refining, logistics, and convenience store retailing businesses.  DK most recent quarter (6/30/2013) revenues were up 5.3% but earnings were down 31%.  At $21.95 DK is down very near their price of July 30, 2012, but still way above their $7.30 range they traded in from 2009 to late 2010.  They peaked at $40 in March of 2013.  Current P/E is 4.7, dividend is 2.5%, Cash flow is negative $142 million, Inventories increased by $130 million this most recent quarter, Insider ownership is 54%.  DK sold $176 million more of their stock into the market in late 2012.  So that is where the money is coming from to support the huge negative cash flow.  DK is also part of Delek Group (DLEKG.TA) an Israeli company with several other publicly traded divisions including DLEN, DLEA, DEDRL, AVNRL.  I am sure that Delek knows how to use all the stock market money raised from these separate publicly traded divisions, but I do not feel comfortable buying a company with so many different divisions all trading publicly.

PTGI is Primus Telecommunications.  They provide integrated facilities-based communications services primarily in Canada and the United States. The company offers voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) to large wholesale customers.  PTGI has only been publicly traded since July 2009.  On Aug. 28 they paid a special dividend of $8.50 per share which dropped their price from $12.39 to $3.98.  PTGI is now back to the same price they went public at back in July of 2009.  Insider ownership of PTGI is 17%, Debt to Equity is 225%, Goodwill to Equity is 181%.  Cash Flow is negative, P/B is 0.3 , P/S is 0.2  I think these P/B and P/S values on Yahoo Finance are wrong due to a recent sale in May 2013 of PTGI’s North American retail communications operations for $130 million.  The money for the special dividend came from this sale: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ptgi-completes-initial-closing-north-210100108.html    PTGI could have used the proceeds from this sale to pay down some of their huge debt, but instead they chose to pay out the special dividend.  They paid this huge dividend to get their cash down to be less than their stock market value.  If they had not done this, a competitor could have bought all their outstanding stock and paid for that stock by using the cash PTGI had in the bank from this sale. PTGI has too much debt and goodwill for me to buy them.

Volatility” sort shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ;
Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.  This week’s list has 2 companies, DK and PTGI (see analysis above).  Neither of these look good to me.

MutualFundEvaluator short list has 43 funds this week, all but 1 are bond funds which I believe will continue to go lower until interest rates go about 1% higher and The Fed decreases the Quantitative Easing (QE) bond buying.  Finally we have a non-bond fund on the Short List.  It is FRIFX, a Fidelity Stock REIT fund. 

FRIFX
Current Price: $11.16
All time high $12.37 on 5/13/2013
Now back down to price of 6/25/2012
5 Year Low of $6.22 on 3/2/2009
5 Year Return: 10.01%
10 Year Return: 7.11%
Dividend Yield: 4.74%
Years Up=7    Years Down=2

I am not going to buy FRIFX, but it is the first non-bond fund to get on the short list for over 6 months.  I think more non-bond funds will start joining the list so pretty soon we will finally have some more alternatives to choose from.  I am hoping to be able to buy funds closer to their 5 year low prices when the market finally takes a dip.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, October 8, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
None

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our disclaimer at the bottom of this email.
______________________________________________
How to Use Our Spreadsheets and Legal Disclaimer 
Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,500 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 800 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:


To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Disclaimer:
This disclaimer applies to all articles, blogs, posts, comments, charts, tables or any other information we publish into the public domain at our website, by email distribution, through other sites, or by any other means (the “Public Materials”)
Opinions expressed in our Public Materials and our disclosed positions are as of the date of publication, and may no longer represent our current opinions. Our opinions and positions may change as subsequent conditions vary. We do not make any commitment to publish changes to our opinions or changes in our holdings.

Data included in our Public Materials is as of the publication date, or as of any other date or date range indicated in the Public Materials, and does not represent data after the publication date, which may be substantially different.

All of our Public Materials are for informational purposes only. More factors than considered in our Public Materials should be evaluated before taking any investment action. Perform your own investment research before making any investment decision. Consider seeking professional personal investment advice before implementing your portfolio ideas.

We utilize information sources that we believe to be reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and there is no guarantee that any forecast will come to pass.

We are a free investment idea sharing website and are not compensated by our clients. We do not sell securities, and do not receive any form of revenue or incentive from anyone. We are not affiliated with any securities dealer, any fund, any fund sponsor or any company issuer of any security.

PUBLIC MATERIALS ARE NOT PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE TO ANY SPECIFIC PERSON FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. DO NOT TAKE ANY INVESTMENT ACTION BASED SOLELY ON THE CONTENTS OF ANY OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR USE OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION, AND ACCEPT NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSSES YOU INCUR IN TAKING ANY INVESTMENT ACTION. YOU ARE FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY USE YOU MAKE OF THE CONTENT OF ANY PUBIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US, AND FOR ANY LOSSES THAT OCCUR AS A RESULT OF ANY INVESTMENT ACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE UPON ANY PUBLIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS OF CAPITAL.


Saturday, September 7, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for Sept. 7, 2013

This Week's Activity – September 7, 2013:
Remember next Tuesday Sept. 10, at 7:30PM  is the monthly Investment Idea Sharing meeting at my house.


The Dow Jones 30 Industrials stock market index has been staying around 15,000 since May 7. See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

I am still expecting a 15% drop in the world markets.  But, I cannot predict when, so while I wait, I continue to look for companies with good fundamental financial values that are near their 52 week lows.  My goal is to buy good companies whenever they are down.

I found an investment advice and stock screening website called VectorVest http://www.vectorvest.com/ that is running a promotion to get new subscribers.  They will send you, for free, up to 9 detailed analyses for individual stocks of your choice.  Their analysis tells if the stock is a Buy, Hold or Sell, and provides a lot of data about the company financials. Their annual subscription costs $120 per year, so I am not ready to pay for a full subscription, but I did send for one of their reports on Canon (CAJ) to see if it would be helpful to make my buy decision.  The report was very good and I am going to use my remaining 8 free reports as a second opinion as I find more stocks I want to buy.  CAJ almost made a new 52 week low last week, I did not buy, and this week they were back up 4.3%.  Here is the link for the free stock analysis from VectorVest http://www.vectorvest.com/stockanalysis/.


StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.  This week 10 companies are on the short list.  I researched two of them.

CAJ is Canon, the copier and camera company.  CAJ most recent quarter (6/30/2013) revenues were up 7.5% but earnings were down.  At $31.19 CAJ is near their price on April 20, 2009, but still above their 2009 absolute low of $22.05 on March 2, 2009.  Current P/E is 13,  dividend is zero, but their other financials look good.  The market does not like the fact that Canon’s camera business is being eroded by all the camera phones being sold.  Here is a good article explaining this http://seekingalpha.com/article/1657162-look-to-canon-for-an-excellent-yield-and-upside?source=yahoo   I am watching CAJ to see if it will go any lower.

SSI is Stage Stores, an off-price department store similar to Ross (ROST).  SSI was down this week because they missed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations.  SSI sales were only up 4%, Profits up 11%, full year revenue forecast was lowered to only 1%.  But Wall Street was expecting more.  At $19.19 / share, SSI is still way above their 2 year low of $11.22, and P/E is high at 20, but their financials all look good and they pay a 2.2% dividend.  I am watching to see if they will go any lower.

Volatility” sort shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ;
Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.  This week’s list has 3 companies, MDC, HDSN, SFY.  None of these look good to me.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 42 funds.  They are all Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates.  I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys in hopes they can go even lower.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, September 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for Last Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
none

Here are my Stock SELLs for Last Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
None

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our disclaimer at the bottom of this email.
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,500 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 800 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:


To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Disclaimer:
This disclaimer applies to all articles, blogs, posts, comments, charts, tables or any other information we publish into the public domain at our website, by email distribution, through other sites, or by any other means (the “Public Materials”)
Opinions expressed in our Public Materials and our disclosed positions are as of the date of publication, and may no longer represent our current opinions. Our opinions and positions may change as subsequent conditions vary. We do not make any commitment to publish changes to our opinions or changes in our holdings.

Data included in our Public Materials is as of the publication date, or as of any other date or date range indicated in the Public Materials, and does not represent data after the publication date, which may be substantially different.

All of our Public Materials are for informational purposes only. More factors than considered in our Public Materials should be evaluated before taking any investment action. Perform your own investment research before making any investment decision. Consider seeking professional personal investment advice before implementing your portfolio ideas.

We utilize information sources that we believe to be reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and there is no guarantee that any forecast will come to pass.

We are a free investment idea sharing website and are not compensated by our clients. We do not sell securities, and do not receive any form of revenue or incentive from anyone. We are not affiliated with any securities dealer, any fund, any fund sponsor or any company issuer of any security.

PUBLIC MATERIALS ARE NOT PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVICE TO ANY SPECIFIC PERSON FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE. DO NOT TAKE ANY INVESTMENT ACTION BASED SOLELY ON THE CONTENTS OF ANY OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR USE OF OUR PUBLIC MATERIALS IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION, AND ACCEPT NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSSES YOU INCUR IN TAKING ANY INVESTMENT ACTION. YOU ARE FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY USE YOU MAKE OF THE CONTENT OF ANY PUBIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US, AND FOR ANY LOSSES THAT OCCUR AS A RESULT OF ANY INVESTMENT ACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE UPON ANY PUBLIC MATERIALS PREPARED BY US. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS OF CAPITAL.