This Week's Activity – September 28, 2013:
Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF
The Dow Jones 30 Industrials stock market index has been staying around 15,000 since May 7. See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
By this Tuesday, Oct. 1, our Congress must vote to either Raise the National Debt Limit or Shut Down the Government (non-essential services only). In case they call me to cast the deciding vote (?), I did some research to determine how our current National Debt and Budget Deficit numbers compare to average historical values from the past.
Chart #1: Debt is currently 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Over the past 30 years this has averaged about 60%.
Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/us_debt_percent_gdp.JPG
Chart #2: Government Spending in 2012 was 23% of GDP (50 year avg. is 20%). Government Revenue in 2012 was 16% of GDP (50 yr. avg. is 18%.
Weblink to this table:
Chart #3: Government Budget Deficit in 2013 is 6.4% of GDP. 40 year avg. is 3%).
Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/us_deficit_percent_gdp_line.JPG
It appears that our revenues, spending and budget deficit values, even though getting better over the past 2 years, are all still out of line with their historical averages. There is still more work to be done to match up spending with revenues so the deficit can continue to go down.
StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.
Download the short list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_short_list.xls
This week 8 companies are on the short list. None of these look good to me this week.
Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.
Download the Volatility list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluatorvolatilitysort.xls
This week 4 companies are on the Volatility list: CLD, TWI, SFY, PTGI
See email of Sept. 14 for my analysis of PTGI. The other 3 do not look good to me.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 45 funds. Just like the past few weeks, All but 1 are Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates. I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower. The one non-Bond fund on the list is FRIFX a Fidelity Stock Real Estate REIT fund. It is down almost 10% from its 52 week high, and back to its 52 week low but still 10% above the 2 year low. I will wait for it to go lower before considering it as a buy.
You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com
Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, October 8, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.
Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy Company Buy
Date Bought Price Target Sell
----- --------- ----- ------------
9/24 GFI $4.60 $6.50
GFI pays a 3.1% dividend
Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell Company Sell Buy Buy
Date Sold Price Price Date
----- --------- ------- ------- ------------
Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option Sell Stock Strike Expiration Option
Type Date Symbol Price Date Price
------ ------ -------- ------ ---------- --------
Call 9/23 RFMD $6 Feb. 2014 $.45
I bought RFMD in Jan 2012 at $4.45, and had sold another $6 Covered Call in Feb 2013 at $.40 that expired in Aug 2013.
Call 9/24 IQNT $10 Mar. 2014 $1.00
I bought IQNT in Jan 2010 at $16, it has only gone down since then, and is now losing money, so I am ready to take some of my money off the table.
StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com
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