This Week's Activity – October 26, 2013:
Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF
This week, all of the world wide indexes finished the week mixed, US and
Europe were up
and Orient indexes were down. I can not
find a good reason for why the The Japanese Nikkei and the Hong Kong Hang Seng
were both down.
My friend Bobb, sent me this “World Clock” link http://www.poodwaddle.com/Stats/ .
It shows real time running totals for all kinds of worldwide statistics including: population, mortality, illness, environment, energy, food economy and crime. Many of these values were higher (or lower) than I would have ever guessed. But all are very interesting. As an investor, I am trying to figure out how to use this statistical knowledge to my benefit. I welcome your comments on what these figures are trying to tell us.
Last week I discussed the possibility of selling my holdings in FBGRX (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund). I bought it in Feb. 1995 at $26/share and now it is at $61.13, but is still not back to its all time high of $65.65 of March 23, 2000. Over the past 13 years, the 4 years it had huge drops are:
Year % Down
Even with these big drop years, FBGRX still has a 20 year Total Average Return of 8%, which matches the S&P 500 return. I hate those market drops, and my goal is to BEAT the S&P 500 with my investments, but after further discussions with my wife, we have agreed NOT to sell FBGRX because our entire portfolio is already 50% in cash and by holding on to FBGRX we continue to participate in the current tremendous market rally. We have no idea when this rally will end, and now even if we have a 15% drop, since FBGRX is already up 24.7% for 2013 we will still be ahead for the year.
Here is the Yahoo Finance chart showing FBGRX performance from 1995 to now: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FBGRX+Interactive#symbol=fbgrx;range=19941011,20131018;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.
Download the short list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_short_list.xls
This week 6 companies are on the short list. They are: EZPW, GMAN, TWGP, BNA, WD, TWI. TWGP is also on this week’s Volatility Sort.
Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.
This week there are 2 companies on the Volatility list: DMD, TWGP.
TWGP is Tower Group International, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, underwrites insurance and reinsurance products in Bermuda, the
markets. The company provides commercial, personal, and specialty insurance and
reinsurance products. It offers personal insurance products to individuals; and
commercial insurance products to small to medium-sized businesses through a
network of retail and wholesale agents. TWGP
is at $3.82, a new all time low which is down from a 52 week high of $22.30 on
July 29, 2013. See this article for a
description of the $365 million capital reserve charge along with the $215
million goodwill writedown that caused this huge drop: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/10/23/3-stocks-to-get-on-your-watchlist.aspx London
This is a perfect example of why we follow the Goodwill-to-Equity ratio in Stock Evaluator because a company with high Goodwill-to-Equity can at any moment decide to write down this goodwill which will then drop the company’s book value and also drop their stock price.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 19 funds. All are Bond funds, which are still 5 to 10% above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower. I expect that we will now have to wait until 2014 when the new FED chairperson is sworn in before the FED will agree to any interest rate increases.
You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com
Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.
Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy Company Buy
Date Bought Price Target Sell
----- --------- ----- ------------
Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell Company Sell Buy Buy
Date Sold Price Price Date
----- --------- ------- ------- ------------
Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option Sell Stock Strike Expiration Option
Type Date Symbol Price Date Price
------ ------ -------- ------ ---------- --------
StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com
Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.
The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article. Please see our full legal disclaimer at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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