This Week's Activity – October 19, 2013:
This week, all of the world wide indexes
finished the week up due to the US USA
I am continuing to evaluate my holdings to see
which ones may go down the most at the next market drop. Number one on my holdings “Hit List” is FBGRX
(Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund). I
bought it in Feb. 1995 at $26/share and today it is at $60.70, but $60.70 is
still not back to its all time high of $65.65 from March 23, 2000. This means that for the past 13 years, the 2
times I made any progress with this fund (2000, 2007), it gave it all back in
the next market drops. I do NOT want to
ride this mutual fund back down a third time!
Here is the Yahoo Finance chart showing FBGRX
performance from 1995 to now: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FBGRX+Interactive#symbol=fbgrx;range=19941011,20131018;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
I looked up the annual total returns for FBGRX from the
Yahoo Finance “Performance” page, and entered them into a simple Excel
spreadsheet that computes average return over any span of years. FBGRX has a 20 year Total Average Return of 8%. This is not too bad, but includes two huge
give back years (2002, -25% and 2008, -38%).
I want to miss the next huge give back year for FBGRX.
Here is the link to an Excel spreadsheet that you can use
to compute total annual return for your mutual funds: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/total_return_comp_single_fund.xls
I plan to enter a sell order for FBGRX next
week. There are lots of other common
stock mutual funds with much better long term performance (see this article for
my lists: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/excellent_long_term_mutual_funds_article.html ) I will hold the
money for the drop I believe is still coming, then re-deploy the money to one
of the funds from these lists. Here are
the common stock mutual funds from the list that I like the best:
Mutual
Average Fund
Fund
20 Yr. Return Company
FSCSX 13.5% Fidelity
BRUFX 13.2% Bruce
FSCHX 12.1% Fidelity
ACRNX 12.0% Columbia
VPMCX 11.5% Vanguard
PRNHX 10.5% T.Rowe Price
OTCFX 10.5% T.Rowe Price
MERDX 10.5% Matthews
FDFAX 10.0% Fidelity
StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.
Download the short list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_short_list.xls
This week 6 companies are on the short
list. They are: WD, EZPW, GMAN, BNA, DSU, MASC. None of them
look good to me this week.
Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies
that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week
low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.
This week there are no companies are on the
Volatility list.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 32 funds. All are Bond funds, which are continuing to
go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates. All of these bond funds are still 5 to 10%
above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making any bond fund
buys until they go even lower.
You can download all these specially sorted
spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com
Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my
house.
Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy Company Buy
Date Bought Price
Target Sell
----- --------- ----- ------------
none
Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell Company Sell Buy
Buy
Date
Sold
Price Price Date
----- --------- ------- ------- ------------
none
Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option
Sell Stock
Strike Expiration Option
Type
Date Symbol Price Date
Price
------
------ -------- ------ ---------- --------
none
StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available
for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com
Please remember to send me any other
investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.
Thanks,
John D.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the
stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We
certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no
compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article. Please see our full legal disclaimer at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________
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