This Week's Activity – October 12, 2013:
This week, the Dow 30 Industrials index ranged
3.5% from a low of 14,719 on Wednesday to a Friday close of 15,237. Our government was responsible for most of
this volatility. But the fact is the Dow
has been stuck in a range around 15,000 since May. I am still waiting for something to cause a
15% drop. Back in August 2011, when
Congress and Mr. Obama had the last big fight about raising the debt ceiling,
the markets dropped about 15% in the two weeks right before an agreement was
reached. See the table (below) with 2011
price drops for several worldwide indexes along with several of my favorite
mutual funds. Note that during the Debt
Ceiling Standoff of 2011 between July 21 and August 10, the indexes dropped an
average of 14%. The debt ceiling agreement
was finally signed by Mr. Obama on Aug. 2, 2011. On Aug. 5, 2011 Standard & Poor’s
downgraded the credit rating of the US Govt from AAA to AA. The stock markets continued to drop for
almost 2 more months until Oct. 3 at which time they were down by an average of
19% from their July 2011 peak. On Oct. 4,
2011 the markets all turned up and pretty much just kept going up for 2 years until
Sept. 18, 2013.
Notice that now during our current debt
confrontation, the markets have dropped less than 5%. But if they do take a big drop like in 2011, I
will use this table to track which funds drop the most so I can see if any go
down by the 15% or more that I am waiting for.
Also, I have made individual tables containing
more detailed performance numbers for the mutual funds from each of the four
groups in the table above. These four
groups are:
- Conservative
GNMA Bond Funds, with 25 year total returns greater than 5%
- Moderate
Corporate Bond Funds, with 10 year total returns greater than 8%
- Municipal
(Tax Free) Bond Funds, with 10 year total returns greater than 4%
- Large
Cap Stock Funds, with 10 year total returns greater than 9%
Here is the weblink to
download these detailed tables: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/excellent_long_term_mutual_funds_article.html
StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.
Download the short list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_short_list.xls
This week 6 companies are on the short
list. They are: WD, BLW, AOI, EZPW, OFIX, DSU. None of them
look good to me this week.
Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies
that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week
low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.
Download the Volatility list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluatorvolatilitysort.xls
This week 2 companies are on the Volatility
list. Both are small with revenues less
than $350 million, they are WD and SYNC.
WD is currently at $12.64, down from a 52 week
high of $21.76 in Feb. 2013, but their Sept. 2011 low was $10.70. WD is Walker & Dunlop, Inc., through its
subsidiaries, provides commercial real estate financial services for owners and
developers of commercial real estate in the United States Bethesda ,
Md.
Neither WD or SYNC look like a good buy to me.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 44 funds. Just like the past few weeks, All but 1 are Bond
funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising
interest rates. All of these bond funds
are still 5 to 10% above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making
any bond fund buys until they go even lower.
The one non-Bond fund on the list is FRIFX a Fidelity Stock Real Estate
REIT fund. It is down almost 10% from
its 52 week high, and back to its 52 week low but still 10% above the 2 year
low. I will wait for it to go lower
before considering it as a buy.
You can download all these specially sorted
spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com
Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my
house.
Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy Company Buy
Date Bought Price
Target Sell
----- --------- ----- ------------
none
Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell Company Sell Buy
Buy
Date
Sold
Price Price Date
----- --------- ------- ------- ------------
none
Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option
Sell Stock
Strike Expiration Option
Type
Date Symbol Price Date
Price
------
------ -------- ------ ---------- --------
none
StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available
for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com
Please remember to send me any other
investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.
Thanks,
John D.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the
stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We
certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no
compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article. Please see our full legal disclaimer at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________
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Screener for Good Fundamental Values
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Links that show current P/E values for the major
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