This Week's Activity – October 26, 2013:
This week, all of the world wide indexes
finished the week mixed, US and Europe were up
and Orient indexes were down. I can not
find a good reason for why the The Japanese Nikkei and the Hong Kong Hang Seng
were both down.
My friend Bobb, sent me this “World Clock”
link http://www.poodwaddle.com/Stats/
.
It shows real time running totals for all
kinds of worldwide statistics including:
population, mortality, illness, environment, energy, food economy and
crime. Many of these values were higher
(or lower) than I would have ever guessed.
But all are very interesting. As
an investor, I am trying to figure out how to use this statistical knowledge to
my benefit. I welcome your comments on
what these figures are trying to tell us.
Last week I discussed the possibility of
selling my holdings in FBGRX (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund). I bought it in Feb. 1995 at $26/share and now
it is at $61.13, but is still not back to its all time high of $65.65 of March
23, 2000. Over the past 13 years, the 4
years it had huge drops are:
Year
% Down
2000 -10.5%
2001
-16.5%
2002
-25.3%
2008 -38.6%
Even with these big drop years, FBGRX still has a 20 year Total Average
Return of 8%, which matches the S&P 500 return. I hate those market drops, and my goal is to
BEAT the S&P 500 with my investments, but after
further discussions with my wife, we have agreed NOT to sell FBGRX because our
entire portfolio is already 50% in cash and by holding on to FBGRX we continue to participate in the current
tremendous market rally. We have no idea
when this rally will end, and now even if we have a 15% drop, since FBGRX is
already up 24.7% for 2013 we will still
be ahead for the year.
Here is the Yahoo Finance chart showing FBGRX
performance from 1995 to now: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FBGRX+Interactive#symbol=fbgrx;range=19941011,20131018;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.
Download the short list here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_short_list.xls
This week 6 companies are on the short
list. They are: EZPW, GMAN, TWGP, BNA, WD,
TWI. TWGP is also on this week’s Volatility Sort.
Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort” shows only companies
that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ; Within 5% of their 52 week
low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.
This week there are 2 companies on the
Volatility list: DMD, TWGP.
TWGP is Tower Group International, Ltd.,
through its subsidiaries, underwrites insurance and reinsurance products in
Bermuda, the United States ,
and London
This is a perfect example of why we follow the Goodwill-to-Equity
ratio in Stock Evaluator because a company with high Goodwill-to-Equity can at
any moment decide to write down this goodwill which will then drop the
company’s book value and also drop their stock price.
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of
their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. This week’s list has 19 funds. All are Bond funds, which are still 5 to 10%
above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making any bond fund
buys until they go even lower. I expect
that we will now have to wait until 2014 when the new FED chairperson is sworn
in before the FED will agree to any interest rate increases.
You can download all these specially sorted
spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com
Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my
house.
Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy Company Buy
Date Bought Price
Target Sell
----- --------- ----- ------------
none
Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell Company Sell Buy
Buy
Date
Sold
Price Price Date
----- --------- ------- ------- ------------
none
Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option
Sell Stock
Strike Expiration Option
Type
Date Symbol Price Date
Price
------
------ -------- ------ ---------- --------
none
StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available
for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com
Please remember to send me any other
investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.
Thanks,
John D.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the
stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We
certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no
compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article. Please see our full legal disclaimer at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________
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