Update for May 3, 2013

This Week's Activity:

This week, I found a data integrity problem in MutualFundEvaluator.xls.  Our Ultimate Stock Finder web query program was not able to retrieve the "52 Week Low" values from our preferred website due to changes in the format at that website.  We are working on a solution to this problem, but for now the "52 Week Low" values are wrong in MutualFundEvaluator.xls.  We are NOT seeing this problem in StockEvaluator.xls.  Please be sure to let me know if you ever find any bad data in our spreadsheets because we want to fix it.

This weekend is the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.  Over 35,000 people attend to hear what Warren Buffett has to say.  I found a website that lists Berkshire's top 15 holdings, and have marked them with a "b" in Col. A of StockEvaluator.xls.  You can do the Ctrl-T sort to bring these 15 companies to the top for easy comparison.  These 15 companies have RED cell counts ranging from 4 (WFC) to 11 (KO).  None of them are near their 52 week lows.  But if any of them do drop in the next market dip, I will definitely give them a closer look.

Yesterday, I read an article talking about how the stock market often drops between May and October, this is the "Sell in May and Go away" strategy.  So I ran a Yahoo Finance chart of S&P 500 from Jan 2008 to April 2013:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=%5Egspc;range=20080102,20130429;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The S&P 500 hit yearly lows on:

   November 17, 2008

   March 2, 2009

   July 2, 2010

   Aug. 8 to Oct. 3, 2011

   June 1, 2012  

So, "Sell in May and Go Away" would have worked in 3 of the past 5 years, but I prefer to buy and sell individual stocks based on them having good fundamental values and a low price.  Any individual stock with bad news does not abide by any calendar of May to October.  But, since our mutual funds typically stay fully invested at all times and hold many stocks, this "Sell in May and Go Away" strategy may work for them.  I will check 3 of my favorite common stock mutual funds  (FCNTX, FBGRX,  PRWCX) to see if they follow this May to October dip.  I will have this in next week's email.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for April 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

4/17   AAPL        $410    Covered Call at $500

Here are my Sells for April 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

4/17     PUT AAPL   $40     Strike $370, Jan 2014 

4/24     CALL STM   $.25   Strike $10, Oct 2013 

                     Bought STM @$5.50 in May 2012

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

____________________________________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 2,000 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 600 mutual funds.

Also, View our YouTube training videos.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

At "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

At "Investment Training Webpage", read more information on how we do our investments.

  See "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

Update for April 26, 2013

This Week's Activity:

This week, Apple (AAPL) reported Quarterly results.  Revenues up 11%, Profits down 18%, iPhone and iPad sales volumes both up significantly.  This shows that AAPL is cutting prices to keep hardware delivery volumes up while lowering profits.  But their gross profit margin for this quarter was 37.5% which is still excellent.  Also AAPL increased their share buyback program by another $50 Billion and increased their dividend by 15% from 2.7% to 3.10%.  These quarterly numbers drove their stock from a 52 week low last Friday of $385 to closing today at $417.  Up $32 which is 8% in a week.  Looks good to me.

Please remember to keep saving for retirement a little bit at a time.  After 36 years of marriage, Tina and I can now look back at all the cigarettes we did not smoke, beer or Jack Daniels or Starbucks we did not drink, TV cable we never paid for, pool cleaning, home repairs and car repairs we did ourselves, and it all adds up to pretty big numbers when multiplied by 36 years.  Assuming you spend $10 per week ($40 per month) on any one of these items, then multiply that $40 times 12 months times 36 years, each one of these becomes $17,280 saved.  If you can eliminate 2 items instead of one, you are up to $34,560 saved over those 36 years.  Then compound interest launches those savings.  My favorite ViaSat 401K fund is PRGMX which paid an average annual return of greater than 5% over the past 25 years.  That means a person earning $40,000 per year who put $40 per week ($2,080 per year) into PRGMX in a 401K for those 25 years would have a 401K worth $101,000 and if they also had a company match at 5%, the total 401K value would be $197,000.  Wow!

These huge numbers are due to consistently saving only $40 per week and investing at a 5% return.  Please see the attached spreadsheet to show you how this works.  You can put in your own savings rate and age and see where your 401K should be at retirement time.  This spreadsheet is also available at UltimateStockFinder.com on the Investment Training page.

At the Investment Links page at the bottom I have added a link "Today's Commodity Prices and 52 Week Lows".  I do not want to take the risk level involved in trading commodities, but believe it is important to see where they are going in order to anticipate how commodity prices may affect various companies and their stock prices.   

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for April 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

4/17   AAPL        $410    Covered Call at $500

Here are my Sells for April 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

4/17     PUT AAPL   $40     Strike $370, Jan 2014 

4/24     CALL STM   $.25   Strike $10, Oct 2013 

                     Bought STM @$5.50 in May 2012

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

____________________________________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list.  Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Under "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

Under "Downloads" you can access other Ultimate Stock Finder investing tools:

  Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets

  View our YouTube training video

  See "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

  See "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 20 year comparisons of many funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Update for April 19, 2013

This Week's Activity:

This week, AAPL dropped another $35 / Share (8%), so I sold a January 2014 PUT at Strike $370 and Option Premium of $40.  Also, bought some shares at $410.  I still believe that AAPL is being oversold by the market and will come back to at least $550.  AAPL reports quarterly earnings next Tuesday, so I am hoping for some good news.

This weeks "StockEvaluator.xls Short List" view that is available at the bottom of the UltimateStockFinder home page contains 45 companies for this week that are within 5% of their 52 Week Low and also have less than 5 Red Cells.  This is what I have been waiting for, where the market drops and provides more choices of undervalued stocks that have excellent fundamentals.  But, that is too many companies for me to easily identify the best buys for the week.  Since I prefer to buy companies with large annual revenues, I am going to add a macro that will sort on "Annual Revenue" so we can bring the largest companies to the top of this Short List.  

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for April 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

4/17   AAPL        $410    Covered Call at $500

Here are my Sells for April 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

4/17     PUT AAPL   $40     Strike $370, Jan 2014 

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

____________________________________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list.  Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Under "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

Under "Downloads" you can access other Ultimate Stock Finder investing tools:

  Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets

  View our YouTube training video

  See "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

  See "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 20 year comparisons of many funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Update for April 12, 2013

This Week's Activity:

Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 hit all time highs again this week.  I am continuing to hold on to cash in anticipation of a market drop.  If the market drops, that will be the time when I hope to see StockEvaluator.xls start to help us identify a lot of good companies that are near their 52 week lows.   This weeks "StockEvaluator.xls Short List" view that is available at the bottom of the UltimateStockFinder home page contains the 15 companies for this week that are within 5% of their 52 Week Low and also have less than 5 Red Cells.  Six of them are gold mining companies, that I am afraid can continue to drop a lot more, so I am waiting before I buy any of these 6.   Three of the others have revenue less than $200 million which is too small for my low risk tolerance.  Of the remaining 6 companies, 2 have debt to equity > 100% (my max. acceptable value for this is 50%).  Of the last 4, I already own AAPL and am looking at the last 3, but am not ready to buy when the market is so high.  I would rather hold on to my cash than buy a company right before the market takes a drop.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for April 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

Here are my Sells for April 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

             

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list.  Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Under "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

Under "Downloads" you can access other Ultimate Stock Finder investing tools:

  Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets

  View our YouTube training video

  See "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

  See "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 20 year comparisons of many funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

Update for April 6, 2013

This Week's Activity:

Several people have asked about low risk mutual funds with consistent returns that would be good long term "buy and hold" investments for retirement funds.  The two that I own are:

   PRGMX (up 26 of the past 27 years, avg. 10 year return 4.6%)

   LSBRX (up 15 of the last 16 years, avg. 10 year return 9.4%)

Here are some other excellent funds that are comparable to these 2 funds due to similar investment strategies, consistent long term returns, Zero Sales Load, and low minimum investment:  MWTRX, PTTDX, RPSIX, VBIIX, VBMFX, OAKBX, PRWCX, VASIX.  I have prepared a special filtered view of MutualFundEvaluator.xls that shows only these "Low Risk Buy and Hold" funds.  It is available for download at UltimateStockFinder.com from the Mutual Fund Evaluator page.

This week, both Evaluator spreadsheets have been improved so you can now put a "z" in Column A for each company you are interested in comparing, then run the Ctrl-T sort to bring all rows marked with "z" to the top for easy viewing of these companies side by side.  Stock Evaluator has over 1,900 companies and Mutual Fund Evaluator has over 500 mutual funds, so using all of the sort buttons is critical to bring the best companies to the top so you can quickly find them.  Also, remember to download this weeks "StockEvaluator.xls Short List" view that is available at the bottom of the UltimateStockFinder home page.  It is optimized for easy viewing on your smart phone and contains the 21 companies for this week that are within 5% of their 52 Week Low and also have less than 5 Red Cells.  The 21 companies on the "Short List", includes AAPL, KNM and SKUL.  Over the past 6 weeks, I have sold PUT options on AAPL and SKUL, and I bought KNM.  I am still considering PKX and NTT, but have not decided yet.  Since the markets are at all time highs, I am being very selective about what I buy because I think there is much more chance of a downward stock market "correction" than a continued upward run.  I would rather hold on to my cash than buy a company right before the market takes a drop.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, April 9, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for March 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

3/1     AAPL        $435    $475

Here are my Sells for March 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

3/22     AAPL Covered Call Expires Jan 2014,Strike $475, Option price $40

            Bought AAPL at $435 on 3/1/2013

3/26     RFMD Covered Call Expires Aug 2013, Strike $6, Option price $$.40 

             Bought RFMD at $4.45 on 1/9/2012

             

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list.  Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Under "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

Under "Downloads" you can access other Ultimate Stock Finder investing tools:

  Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets

  View our YouTube training video

  See "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

  See "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 20 year comparisons of many funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

Update for March 29, 2013

This Week's Activity:

This weeks "StockEvaluator.xls Short List" view is available at the bottom of the UltimateStockFinder home page.  It only contains the companies for this week that are within 5% of their 52 Week Low and also have less than 5 Red Cells.  If you have an Excel viewer on your SmartPhone, you will be able to view it on your phone.  This week, there are 9 companies on the "Short List".  8 of them have 4 red cells each, and on further research, none of these 8 look good enough to me to buy.  The 9th company is SKUL which I already sold a PUT on last month at a strike of $6, and though it is now at $5.28, I am not willing to put any more money at risk on it.  SKUL had their CEO quit last month and just named a new one.  Their founder does not want to return as CEO, so they have hired a NIKE executive as their new CEO.  Also, they just forecast a 30% drop in revenue for the current quarter.   They are down for what looks like some very good reasons.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, April 9, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for March 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   ---------    ------   -------------

3/1     AAPL        $435    $475

Here are my Sells for March 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

3/22     AAPL Covered Call Expires Jan 2014

                    Strike $475, Option price $40

                          

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets,

and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

---

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,800 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list.  Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Under "Web Search Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

Under "Downloads" you can access other Ultimate Stock Finder investing tools:

  Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets

  View our YouTube training video

  Go To "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

  Go To "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 20 year comparisons v.s. other funds

  View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

Update for March 23, 2013

This Week's Activity:

Recently, Tony and Trey commented to me that my StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet with over 1,800 companies and 58 columns of data for each company is "information overload" for most people.  They both suggested that I present a simplified view with only the few stocks that sort to the top for key parameters.  This "StockEvaluator.xls Short List" view is now available at the bottom of the UltimateStockFinder home page.  It only contains the companies for this week that are within 5% of their 52 Week Low and also have less than 5 Red Cells.  If you have an Excel viewer on your SmartPhone, you will be able to view it on your phone.  Each week, this "Short List" will provide you with several companies that may be good enough to merit further research on your part to determine if they are something you would want to buy.  

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, April 9, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Buys for March 2013:

Buy   Company    Buy

Date  Bought      Price    Target Sell

-----   -------------    ------   -------------

3/1     AAPL      $435    $475

Here are my Sells for March 2013:

Sell      Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date      Sold         Price   Price     Date

-------   ----------   -------  -------   ------------

3/22     AAPL Covered Call Expires Jan 2014

                    Strike $475, Option price $40

                          

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets,

and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.