Investment Idea Sharing for November 30, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 30, 2013: 

Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 16,174 as did the S&P 500 at 1,813. Other world wide indices were mixed. Here is a good article that summarizes my feelings about the current market conditions:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-16000-wont-last-2013-11-19    I still think the markets are overpriced.  But, I am always looking for good values on individual stocks.

This week I sold Cash Secured PUTs on EXC and NLY.

Excelon (EXC) a diversified utility company serving Chicago, Baltimore and Philadelphia.  EXC is at $26.91, a 10 year low and pays a 4.5% dividend (cut from 5.4% in Feb. 2013).  Dividend Payout Ratio is 89%.  This week, I sold a January 2015 PUT on EXC at Strike of $25 for $2.00 (8% premium).  Over the prior 2 weeks, I sold an April 2014 PUT at Strike of $28 and a July 2014 PUT at Strike of $27, both for $1.80 per share (6.7% premium).  If I get any of these EXC options PUT to me, I will buy and hold the stock and continue to receive that 4.5% dividend, but if each of these PUTs expires worthless, I will have made the premium return for having my money tied up until the expiration date and will then get my money back to use for more PUTs. 

See this article that explains current problems being faced by EXC: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1868281-exelon-corp-difficult-time-ahead?source=yahoo

See the Yahoo Profile for EXC at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=EXC+Profile  

See the Yahoo 10 year chart for EXC at http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EXC+Interactive#symbol=exc;range=20010131,20131118;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that invests in mortgage obligations, many of which are backed by the US Government (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac).  NLY is at $10.16, a 12 year low and pays a 13% dividend that may be decreased soon.  This week, I sold a January 2015 PUT on NLY at Strike of $10 for $1.81 (18% premium).

See the Yahoo Profile for NLY at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NLY+Profile 

See the Yahoo 12 year chart for NLY at http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NLY+Interactive#symbol=nly;range=20010111,20131129;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

StockEvaluator “Short List”

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low and have <5 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls.  Stocks on the list this week are:  BFK, RCII, DSU, CSH, BNA

I do not think any of these are a good buy at this time.

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls.  Stock on the list this week is: SDR

   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 37 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 8% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I will lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, BGNMX closed this week at $10.72, down from 2011 high of $11.30, but still 8% above 2007 low of $9.89.  My target buy price for BGNMX is $10.45.

Here is the 10 year chart for BGNMX that shows these price ranges:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BGNMX+Interactive#symbol=bgnmx;range=20020522,20131129;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.74%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.

Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=19991021,20131129;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Stock Symbol:

Buy Date:

Buy Price:

Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Stock Symbol:

Sell Date:

Sell Price:

Buy Price:

Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option: PUT

Stock Symbol: EXC

Sell Date: Nov. 25, 2013

Expiration Date: January 17, 2015

Strike Price: $25

Option Price: $1.81

Option: PUT

Stock Symbol: NLY

Sell Date: Nov. 25, 2013

Expiration Date: January 17, 2015

Strike Price: $10

Option Price: $2.00

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed every weekend into StockEvaluator which contains over 3,000 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 1,200 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.

   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"

   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Investment Idea Sharing for Nov. 23, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 23, 2013: 

Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 16,068 as did the S&P 500 at 1,805. Other world wide indices were mixed. Here is a good article that summarizes this week’s activities: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-retreats-after-record-close-as-intel-sinks-2013-11-22?siteid=yhoof2

I still think the markets are overpriced.  But, I will keep looking for good values.

Warren Buffett is possibly the world’s most famous “value investor”.  I am also a value investor.  Warren and I both look for companies that have strong underlying value but whose stock prices are temporarily under priced.  But, Warren has an advantage over me because many of these companies actually CALL Warren and ASK him to buy $1 Billion or more their preferred dividend paying stock (often paying him a 10% dividend) and often throw in a “buyer’s” bonus of stock warrants that will allow Warren to buy EVEN MORE of their stock in the future at a price similar to the current depressed stock price that he is paying.  Read about examples of these sweet “Warren Only” deals in this article http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304441404579119742104942198

As you can see, sometimes Warren gets dividends of 10% or more and does not even have to do any research to find this great opportunity.  My only problem is that even if these companies DID call me, I could not send them $1 Billion.  But, there are good companies out there that regular people CAN afford to buy that pay a 4% dividend and a 6% “buyer’s” bonus in the form of a PUT premium.

One of these companies is Excelon (EXC) a diversified utility company serving Chicago, Baltimore and Philadelphia.  EXC is at $27.35 a 10 year low, pays a 4.4% dividend and I just sold a July 2014 PUT at strike of $27 for $1.80 (6.7% premium). If I get EXC PUT to me, I will hold it and continue to receive that 4.4% dividend, if the PUT expires worthless in July, I will have made a 6.7% return for having my money tied up for the next 8 months. 

Not as good a deal as Warren gets, but a pretty good deal for someone like me. 

See the Yahoo Profile for EXC at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=EXC+Profile  

See the Yahoo 10 year chart for EXC at http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EXC+Interactive#symbol=exc;range=20010212,20131121;compare=;indicator=bollinger+ema(50,100)+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

StockEvaluator “Short List”

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low and have <5 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls.  Stocks on the list this week are:  BFK, TKPPY, RCII, DSU, PTGI

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls.  Stock on the list this week is: PTGI

   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 35 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 5% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I will lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, PRGMX closed this week at $9.55, down from 2011 high of $10.22, but still 4% above 2007 low of $9.14.  My target buy price for PRGMX is $9.35.

Here is the 10 year chart for PRGMX that shows these price ranges:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PRGMX+Interactive#symbol=prgmx;range=20010222,20131122;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.75%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.

Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=19991021,20131122;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy   Company   Buy

Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell

----- ---------   -----  ------------

none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date

-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  

Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    

------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------

PUT    11/21    EXC     $27   July 2014   $1.80

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.

   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"

   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Investment Idea Sharing for Nov. 17, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 16, 2013: 

Weblink to this table: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 15,962.  World wide indexes (except the FTSE 100) finished the week Up. This week’s comments from Janet Yellen guided the market to believe she is happy keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future. I have added more worldwide market indices to the table above and also the P/E ratios when I could find them.  With the ease and cheapness of travel, shipping and communications in the 21^st century, we are truly in a global market for all products.  As investors, we need to understand the entire world financial markets to be sure we are making the best choices even if we only are buying U.S. stocks.

I still think the markets are overpriced.  But, I will keep looking for good values.

Stock Evaluator.xls is now able to get data from Yahoo Finance again.  I had to reduce my individual stock symbol request file size from 300 symbols down to 100 for each of my query files that I send to Yahoo Finance in order to make it IN and OUT past the Yahoo gatekeeper in less than the allotted maximum time of 30 seconds.  Now I send Yahoo 3 times as many query files (100 stocks each instead of 300 stocks), but now Yahoo happily populates all my data.  Each of these smaller files of 100 takes about 15 seconds.  I can get Yahoo Finance data for all of my 3,000 stock symbols in about 30 minutes. 

StockEvaluator “Short List”

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ this week are:  MIL, BFK, BNA, RCII, DSU

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are are: EZPW, QCCO, SDR, IRDM

   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 32 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 5% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I will lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, PRGMX closed this week at $9.58, down from 2011 high of $10.22, but still 4% above 2007 low of $9.14.  My target buy price for PRGMX is $9.35.

Here is the 10 year chart for PRGMX that shows these price ranges:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PRGMX+Interactive#symbol=prgmx;range=20010222,20131115;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.71%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.

Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=19991021,20131115;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy   Company   Buy

Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell

----- ---------   -----  ------------

none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date

-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  

Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    

------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------

none

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.

   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"

   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Investment Idea Sharing Nov. 9, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 9, 2013: 

Remember Investment Idea Sharing monthly meeting is 7:30PM next Tuesday Nov. 12, 2013 at my house.

Weblink to this table:http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 15,797.  World wide indexes finished the week mixed.  

I still think the markets are overpriced.  But, I am always looking for good values, and this week I found EXC (Exelon, electric utility, 4.3% dividend) and EZPW (EZ Corp, pay day loans and pawn).  Instead of buying them, I sold PUT’s with strike prices below the 52 week lows for each stock, see below in “Stock Buys for this Week”

EXC is at a 10 year low because EXC is the largest nuclear power utility in America (17 reactors  which generate 20% of the US Nuclear industry’s power capacity) but the stock market is concerned about nuclear costs being uncompetitive when compared to the extremely low prices right now for natural gas.  I believe that EXC will come back and it pays a 4.3% dividend while we wait.

Here is a Forbes article describing this current situation for EXC:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2013/11/06/nuclear-keeps-exelon-bright/

Here is the 10 year chart for EXC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EXC#symbol=exc;range=20031017,20131104;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

EZPW has been on the Stock Evaluator “Short List” for the past 3 weeks, and this week reported for year end 2013 with only a small increase in annual revenues and a decrease in profits, though still profitable.  These numbers dropped EZPW stock price from $15.71 on Monday to $11.34 on Friday, which is a 5 year low.  I believe the market has overreacted. 

Here is an article summarizing EZPW fiscal year end report for Sept. 30, 2013:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ezcorp-reports-2013-revenues-more-124500068.html

Here is the 10 year chart for EZPW: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EZPW+Interactive#symbol=ezpw;range=20030620,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

StockEvaluator “Short List”

No ‘Short List’ this week due to continued Yahoo Finance data feed problems.  Please use FinViz.com link.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4 

This week’s FinViz screen returned 8 companies:  CIG, LF, MDC, MIL, RCII, SENEA, SGM, ZA.

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

No ‘Volatility Sort’ this week due to Yahoo Finance data feed problems.  Please use FinViz.com link.  http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u3,fa_ps_u2,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h,ta_volatility_wo6&ft=4

This week, 2 companies are on the FinViz list.  They are: IRG , RTK 

   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 38 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 5% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  Remember, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay about a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  So we lose a whole year’s worth of interest if we buy back in too soon.  For example, PRGMX closed the week at $9.52, down from 2011 high of $10.22, but still above 2007 low of $9.14.  My target buy price for PRGMX is $9.35.

Here is the 10 year chart for PRGMX that shows these price ranges:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PRGMX+Interactive#symbol=prgmx;range=20011213,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.75%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.

Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX+Interactive#symbol=%5Etnx;range=19991021,20131108;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy   Company   Buy

Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell

----- ---------   -----  ------------

none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date

-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  

Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    

------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------

PUT    11/8    EXC       $28      Apr 2014   $1.80

PUT    11/8    EZPW    $12.50  Mar 2014   $1.30

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.

   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"

   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

Investment Idea Sharing Nov. 3, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 2, 2013: 

Weblink to this table:http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF

This week, the world wide indexes finished the week mixed.  I can not find a good reason for why the Hang Seng (HSI, Hong Kong) was up so much (2.4%).  Also notice that Asian and South American markets: HSI (Hong Kong), SSE (China), KOSPI (South Korea), BOVESPA (Brazil) have ALL NOT participated in the huge 2013 rally of about 20% that the U.S., Japanese and the European indices have done.  

I still think the markets are overpriced.  One value I check to confirm if stock is overpriced is the P/E ratio.  I prefer to buy stocks with a P/E under 15, so when the overall stock markets are above P/E of 15, I view them as being too high.  On the Ultimate Stock Finder “Links” page, I have put links the P/E Ratios for many of the worldwide market indices.

http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/websearchlinksindex.html

Index         Current P/E

Dow 30         17.0

S&P 500        20.3

NASDAQ        24.3

FTSE 100       27.5

DAX              22.7

This week I was not able to get the data from Yahoo Finance to populate my Stock Evaluator spreadsheet.  Yahoo was too busy and refused to answer my data queries.  For the past few months, Trey and I have been testing out the FinViz.com customizable stock screener because it provides almost the same screening criteria that we use in Stock Evaluator.  Here is the link to FinViz.com that approximates the “Short List” that I have been running every week: 

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4

Today, this FinViz screen returned 5 companies:  EZPW, MIL, RCII, SENEA, TWI.  I checked these against Last Week’s “Short List” and 2 of them (EZPW , TWI) were on last week’s list.  So, there is some commonality between FinViz and my Short List.  Until I can get Stock Evaluator working, I am going to use FinViz.com.

StockEvaluator “Short List”

No ‘Short List’ this week due to Yahoo Finance data feed problems.  Please use FinViz.com link.

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_ltdebteq_u1,fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u2,fa_pe_low,fa_ps_u1,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h&ft=4 

This week, 5 companies are on the FinViz list.  They are: EZPW, MIL, RCII, SENEA, TWI.    

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”

No ‘Volatility Sort’ this week due to Yahoo Finance data feed problems.  Please use FinViz.com link.  http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_netmargin_pos,fa_payoutratio_u70,fa_pb_u3,fa_ps_u2,fa_salesqoq_pos,ta_highlow52w_a0to10h,ta_volatility_wo6&ft=4

This week, 2 companies are on the FinViz list.  They are: ACCO , RTK 

   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 26 funds.  All are Bond funds, which are still 5 to 10% above their lows of 2007 to 2009, so I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys until they go even lower.  I expect that we will now have to wait until 2014 when the new FED chairperson is sworn in before the FED will agree to any interest rate increases.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy   Company   Buy

Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell

----- ---------   -----  ------------

none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date

-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  

Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    

------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------

none

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,

John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 

Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.

MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.

   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"

   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds

   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:

   Screener for New 52 week lows

   Screener for Good Fundamental Values

   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 

   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:

Blog:  http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.