Sunday, November 17, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for Nov. 17, 2013

This Week's Activity – November 16, 2013: 


This week, the Dow Jones 30 hit a new all time high of 15,962.  World wide indexes (except the FTSE 100) finished the week Up. This week’s comments from Janet Yellen guided the market to believe she is happy keeping interest rates low for the foreseeable future. I have added more worldwide market indices to the table above and also the P/E ratios when I could find them.  With the ease and cheapness of travel, shipping and communications in the 21st century, we are truly in a global market for all products.  As investors, we need to understand the entire world financial markets to be sure we are making the best choices even if we only are buying U.S. stocks.

I still think the markets are overpriced.  But, I will keep looking for good values.

Stock Evaluator.xls is now able to get data from Yahoo Finance again.  I had to reduce my individual stock symbol request file size from 300 symbols down to 100 for each of my query files that I send to Yahoo Finance in order to make it IN and OUT past the Yahoo gatekeeper in less than the allotted maximum time of 30 seconds.  Now I send Yahoo 3 times as many query files (100 stocks each instead of 300 stocks), but now Yahoo happily populates all my data.  Each of these smaller files of 100 takes about 15 seconds.  I can get Yahoo Finance data for all of my 3,000 stock symbols in about 30 minutes. 

StockEvaluator “Short List”
Stocks on the ‘Short List’ this week are:  MIL, BFK, BNA, RCII, DSU

Stock Evaluator “Volatility Sort”
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are are: EZPW, QCCO, SDR, IRDM
   
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 32 funds.  All except 1 are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 5% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think they will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I will lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.  For example, PRGMX closed this week at $9.58, down from 2011 high of $10.22, but still 4% above 2007 low of $9.14.  My target buy price for PRGMX is $9.35.
Here is the 10 year chart for PRGMX that shows these price ranges:

Watching the interest rate on 10 year treasury notes gives another hint of when these bond fund prices will get back to normal.  As this interest rate comes back up, the prices of these bond mutual funds will go down.  The interest rate on 10 year treasury notes closed this week at 2.71%, up from 2012 low of 1.50%, but way below 2006 - 2007 highs of 5.2%.  My minimum target for 10 year interest rates is 3.5% before I will be ready to buy back into bond mutual funds.
Here is a chart showing interest rates over the past 13 years for 10 year treasury notes:

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, December 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
none

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
none

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", you can download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,900 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 900 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

Visit Our Blog and Facebook pages:



To Remove Your Name from this email distribution list, reply to me and I will delete your name.  You will still be able to check the Ultimate Stock Finder Blog and Facebook pages to read this same eMail update.

No comments:

Post a Comment