Sunday, January 19, 2014

Investment Idea Sharing January 19, 2014

This Week's Activity – January 18, 2014: 
Check out our new training videos showing how to use Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheet as a powerful fund screener to find mutual funds that buy Large Cap Stocks based on fundamental value and performance criteria.

This video shows how to use the Mutual Fund Evaluator ‘Short List’ screener and change it to screen to your own limits.

This video shows how to use Mutual Fund Evaluator to do a ‘Row-by-Row’ comparison of the fundamental values for mutual funds you are considering.

This week, the world market indices were mixed on uncertainty while waiting for a large number of quarterly earnings releases scheduled for next week.  http://news.yahoo.com/wall-st-week-ahead-stocks-may-vulnerable-earnings-001945204--sector.html  
I still think the markets are overpriced but am always looking for good values on individual stocks of good solid companies. 

Visit our website: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ for more investing ideas, links, training, tools and information.

Click here to see our Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values for this week: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/weekly_index_summary.GIF


This week I sold PUTs on LF and SODA. See the details below in (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week.  LF closed this week at $7.71 which is near their 20 month low.  Revenue is up 4%, profit margin is 13%, but stock price is down from $11.50 in July due to a software glitch on their newly released LeapPad Ultra this summer.  They have corrected the glitch, but now are gaining more competitors (Amazon, Apple, Samsung) in the education tablet business.  LeapFrog already had VTech as a competitor.  So there are many downward pressures on LF stock, but they have good fundamentals, and I think they can compete with these rivals and will recover from this. 

See the Yahoo 5 year chart for LF at

SODA closed this week at $38.15 which is near their 14 month low.  Revenues (up 29%) and profits (up 20%) are way up over last year, but management’s guidance was a little weak and the market is punishing them.

See the 5 year chart for SODA here: 

See this article for current problems being faced by SODA:

StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy. 
View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/short_list_12_criteria.JPG

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are:  CAJ, KYO, CVX, PTR, CHA.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are: SCSS, SHOS.   

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. 
This week’s list has 37 funds.  All except 1 (FRIFX) are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 8% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think the bond prices will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels which mean 10 Year Bond interest rate of at least 3.5% compared to today’s 10 year rate of 3.01%.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I do not want to lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.

The top two funds on this week’s short list are BCOSX and MWTRX.
Here are their 10year charts to show why I am still waiting to buy.
MWTRX:

BCOSX:

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, February 11, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date: 
Buy Price:  
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option: PUT
Stock Symbol: LF
Sell Date: 1/17/2014
Expiration Date: Jan 2015
Strike Price: $7.50
Option Price: $1.10

Option: PUT
Stock Symbol: SODA
Sell Date: 1/17/2014
Expiration Date: July 19, 2014
Strike Price: $35
Option Price: $3.80

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download all Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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