Thursday, October 16, 2014

Mid Week Update due to Big Market Drop - 15 Oct. 2014

Investment Idea Sharing – Oct. 15, 2014 Mid Week Update: 
See below for my personal stock market Buys or Sells for this week:
Buy Stock: none                                         Sell Stock: none
Buy To Close Covered Call: none                  Sell Covered CALL: none
Buy to Close Cash Secured PUT: none           Sell Cash Secured PUT: none
See more details on these transactions below the Weekly Summary table below.

For the past 10 days, my wife and I were on vacation in New York state and visited Niagara Falls, Albany, Manhattan and Long lsland.  We had a great time, but I started getting worried when the market did the big drop this week.  Last night when we got back home, I ran the program to update the values in Mutual Fund Evaluator.  This morning, I ran a screen to find mutual funds with performance equal to or better than my favorite fund FCNTX (Fidelity Contrafund).  We have owned FCNTX since 1995 and it has been great. 
Over the past 25 years, FCNTX returned an average of 14.2% per year versus the S&P 500 which returned an average of 10.4%.  10 year average annual returns: FCNTX is 10.1% and S&P 500 is 7.5%.  FCNTX is 4% better than the S&P 500 at 25 years, and 2.5% better at 10 years.  Using my Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheet screening capabilities, I have found 90 funds that returned as good or better than FCNTX over at least the past 10 years.  But even with this week’s big drop, almost half of these 90 funds are not yet down to be within 5% of their 52 week lows.  Use Column C “Fund Symbol” and Column D “Fund Family” to confirm with your brokerage house if any funds you are interested in can be purchased at no transaction fee from your brokerage.


My wife and I decided a year ago that the next time we got a 10% market drop, we would move 3% of our idle cash into a mutual fund that has better performance than FCNTX to gain more diversification.

Over the past month, the S&P 500 has dropped 7.3%.  
Sept. 19 it was the all time high closing value of 2,010.40
Oct. 16 (today) it closed at 1,862.76 down 7.3% from the Sept. 19 closing value.
But today’s low is still not its low for 2014.  That low was 1739.66 on Feb. 3, 2014.


Here is the S&P 500 chart from March 2007 to Dec. 2012:

I made a table to look at the big drops in the S&P 500 since 2008 so I could see how long each of these drops lasted from the starting high to the finishing low before the market finally turned back up.  There were 7 drops greater than 5% and the duration ranged from 294 days to 12 days.  This current drop has lasted 27 days and has not turned back up yet.  But it has not hit my 10% down target, so I am going to wait and be ready to buy if it goes on down to my 10%.



I continue to look for stocks that have good fundamental financial values, but stock prices near 52 week lows.

Weekly Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values:

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date:  
Buy Price:  
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date: 
Sell Price: 
Buy Price:  
Buy Date:  

Here are my Mutual Fund BUYs for This Week:
Fund Symbol:
Buy Date: 
Buy Price: 
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells/Buys for This Week:
Option: Buy to Close Covered CALL 
Stock Symbol:
Original Sell to Open Date:
Original Expiration Date: 
Buy to Close Date:
Strike Price:
Option Price:

Option: Sell to Open Covered CALL 
Stock Symbol:
Sell to Open Date:
Expiration Date: 
Strike Price:
Option Price:  

Option: Sell to Open Cash Secured PUT 
Stock Symbol:
Sell to Open Date:
Expiration Date: 
Strike Price:
Option Price:

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download our Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.
NOTE: Spreadsheets will NOT be updated from Sept. 1 until Sept. 20 because I am on vacation.

StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy. 

View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the Stock Evaluator ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/short_list_12_criteria.JPG

Mutual Fund Evaluator ‘Short List’

View the Mutual Fund Evaluator ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here:

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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