Ultimate Stock Finder

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Update for March 16, 2013

This Week's Activity:

I have revised the UltimateStockFinder.com website to make it easier to find the links and downloads you use when visiting the site from your computer, and also to make the entire site more viewer friendly (larger tappable links!!) for Smartphone users.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, April 9, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.

Here are my Buys for March 2013:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ------ -------------

3/1 AAPL $435 $475

Here are my Sells for March 2013:

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

------- ---------- ------- ------- ------------

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets

and also with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,800 company stocks. We will add any company you would like to the list.

Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/

View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 500 mutual funds.

Download "MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/

Go To "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet to see 20 year comparisons of other funds v.s. the S&P

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values.

Go To "Investment Search Links" to find our favorite links for good investing information including:

Screener for New 52 week lows

Screener for Good Fundamental Values

Screener for Stocks with High Volatility

CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes.

Go To "Investment Training Webpage", for more information on how we do our investments.

Also, view our YouTube training videos for StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Updates for March 8, 2013

This Week's Activity:

Annuities are good for people who want a guaranteed annual income stream in retirement, but they do not want to do any management of the underlying investments that generate that income stream. Since I prefer to manage my investments, I wanted to see if a typical annuity would guarantee me a better income stream than I expect to be able to earn with my safe and conservative mutual funds.

The way an annuity works is you make a lump sum payment to the annuity provider (usually an insurance company) to start the annuity at some age before you retire, and the annuity provider will invest and hold your money until you reach age 65, at which time they will start paying you a guaranteed amount of money every year until you die. I made a spreadsheet to compare Annuity returns, expenses and residual (death) benefits versus a self directed account that I invest in a stable conservative mutual fund.

The main problem I have with Annuities is, what do they do with the money left over in your account when you die. I have not been able to figure out a clear death benefit payout value in my reading about annuities, so I need help from any of you who own an annuity to explain to me what your annuity guarantees to pay out to your heirs when you are gone.

My spreadsheet "annuity_calculator.xls" is available at the "Investment Training webpage" from www.ultimatestockfinder.com .

I estimate that a typical Annuity will pay at a guaranteed 4.5% rate. For a clear comparison, I input a 4.5% rate of return for my self directed investment even though I believe I can do better than that. My favorite stable mutual fund, PRGMX has an average annual return of 6% over the past 25 years. It was up 24 of those years, down only 1. I ran a "filter" search in "mutualfundevaluator.xls" and found two more funds PTTRX and PRWCX, that have average annual returns of greater than 8% over the past 25 years and are both up 23 and down only 2 years.

Please talk to me if you have an annuity to help me understand the costs and death benefit amount, so I can properly account for them in my spreadsheet.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, March 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.

Here are my Buys for March 2013:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ------ -------------

3/1 AAPL $435 $475

Here are my Sells for March 2013:

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

------- ---------- ------- ------- ------------

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and "Reply All" with any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Updates for March 2, 2013

This Week's Market Activity:

AAPL (Apple) hit another new 52 week low ($429.98). We had a buy limit order in at $435, so it triggered. AAPL has 4 red cells in Stock Evaluator, but with a P/E of 9.8, and very low debt and goodwill, and a 2.4% dividend we think it is too good to pass up. AAPL is 39% down from it's all time high of $705 in Sept. 2012. I think the market is overdoing the punishment. Our target sell price is $475, which AAPL was at on Feb. 11.

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, March 12, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house.

Here are my Buys for February 2013:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ------ -------------

3/1 AAPL $435 $475

Here are my Sells for February 2013:

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

------- ---------- ------- ------- ------------

2/4 AAPL $36.00 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$430 Oct2013

2/7 VSAT $4.00 $32 Employee Stock Purch Plan 6/29/2012

CALL $50 Sep2013

2/8 RFMD $.75 $4.45 1/9/2012

CALL $5 Aug2013

2/11 MU $.82 $6.50 9/10/2010

CALL $8 Jul2013

2/11 SKUL $1.20 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$6 Sep2013

2/21 AAPL $40.00 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$425 Jan2014

2/25 APOL $1.70 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$17 Aug2013

2/27 BBRY $2.10 $13 9/21/2012

CALL$17 Dec2013

2/27 STM $2.10 $.30 5/4/2012

CALL$10 Oct2013

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets,

and also any other investing information or questions that you have.

Thanks,

John D.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Updates for Week Ending Feb. 22, 2013

All,

Last week Nathan sent me a link about the largest shareholder of ViaSat (VSAT) stock. He is Seth Klarman, and he runs the Baupost Group which is a large hedge fund. Hedge fund is another term for a mutual fund that only super rich people can participate in. About 3 years ago, Seth bought $300 million worth of ViaSat stock, and now he is up to $500 million, which is 25% of our company. I believe that Seth is buying our stock with the full approval of Mark Dankberg, our CEO, which means that Seth will not try to do a boardroom battle and oust Mark some day. But still, having someone own 25% of your company can sometimes turn bad with that much money involved. I am interested in seeing Baupost's filing for next quarter (end of March, 2013) to see if Seth sold any VSAT stock when we hit $50 in early February. I certainly sold mine.

Here is the Seth Klarman link:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1200961-a-review-of-seth-klarman-s-baupost-group-s-q4-u-s-equity-changes?source=yahoo

Also, last week Diana asked if it was time to buy Intel (INTC). INTC low today was $20.10, and their 52 week low is $19.23. I would like to buy INTC at $19, because they also pay a 4.3% dividend. So I checked their PUT Options and found the October PUT at Strike $20 was as high as $1.50 today. That would mean an total buy price of $18.50 ($20 - $1.50) if I were to sell this PUT for $1.50 and then get INTC PUT to me for $20. I have not decided yet if I want to do this.

The PUT options I am considering now are:

INTC Oct$20@$1.50 7.5% option premium and a 4.3% dividend

NVDA Sep$12@$1.20 10% option premium and a 2.40% dividend

PBR Oct$15@$1.50 10% option premium and a 1.50% dividend

HMY Aug$6@$.60 10% option premium and a 1.40% dividend

APOL Aug$17@$1.70 10% option premium and a 0.00% dividend

Since I am retiring, my wife and I have generated a Budget spreadsheet that captures all the categories where we spend money. This spreadsheet also includes a daily Ledger where we are logging in the expenses for each day. It will total them up for every month to compare against our budget. We need to be sure that our retirement income is adequate for our lifestyle. This Budget Ledger spreadsheet is attached above and is available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com at the "Investment Training Webpage"

For ViaSat employees, Mutual Fund Evaluator.xls has a worksheet "ViaSat 401K Fund Symbols" that shows the JP Morgan descriptive fund names and stock market symbols. The JP Morgan website is not very clear about what the symbols are for several of our 401K funds, so now you can easily look up the symbol for your funds and read how they are performing in the "MutualFundEvaluator" worksheet.

Here are my Buys and Sells so far for this month February 2013:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ------ -------------

none

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

------- ---------- ------- ------- ------------

2/4 AAPL $36.00 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$430 Oct2013

2/7 VSAT $4.00 $32 Employee Stock Purch Plan 6/29/2012

CALL $50 Sep2013

2/8 RFMD $.75 $4.45 1/9/2012

CALL $5 Aug2013

2/11 MU $.82 $6.50 9/10/2010

CALL $8 Jul2013

2/11 SKUL $1.20 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$6 Sep2013

2/21 AAPL $40.00 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$425 Jan2014

Check out how I use Options (PUT's and CALL's) to make more money off some of the stocks I buy and sell while still minimizing the risk to me. "Go to Investment Training Webpage" on the right hand side at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available on www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Updates for Week Ending Feb. 16, 2013

All,

Last week Dean asked me how my investment returns compared to the S&P 500. I had no idea. But, he was right, I should know that. So I have made a spreadsheet that compares total annual returns for the S&P 500 along with mine and also the 5 biggest mutual funds that I own.

The spreadsheet shows returns for periods of 20 years, 15, 10 and 5. There are only 3 different winners for these 4 time spans because LSBRX (Loomis Sayles Bond Fund) won both the 15 and 5 year spans. Note that on the right in Col. P, I have an imaginary zero risk fund that always returns 2% per year. We can all agree that 2% is not very good, but this 2% fund does NOT finish last in the 5 year time span due to the huge drop we lived through in 2008. This 2% fund actually beat the S&P 500 and my AMRMX fund for the most recent 5 year span. This helps me to feel better about my goal of buying very carefully in the higher yield / higher risk category and trying to buy more of the lower yield / lower risk investments that deliver more consistent returns across the years, whether the markets are up or down.

Here are my Buys and Sells so far for this month February 2013:

Buy Company Buy

Date Bought Price Target Sell

----- --------- ------ -------------

none

Sell Company Sell Buy Buy

Date Sold Price Price Date

------- ---------- ------- ------- ------------

2/4 AAPL $36.00 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$430 Oct2013

2/7 VSAT $4.00 $32 Employee Stock Purch Plan 6/29/2012

CALL $50 Sep2013

2/8 RFMD $.75 $4.45 1/9/2012

CALL $5 Aug2013

2/11 MU $.82 $6.50 9/10/2010

CALL $8 Jul2013

2/11 SKUL $1.20 not bought unless it is PUT to me.

PUT$6 Sep2013

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are attached above and also available on www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to "Reply All" with any other stocks and mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets,

and also with any other investing information that the whole group may be interested in.

Several of you have expressed a concern about email security now that there are so many names on the Investment Idea Sharing address list. I checked on using the bcc: function in Hotmail for all the addresses, but if I do that nobody will be able to send a "Reply All" comment back to the group. So I have now set up a Blog website and also a Facebook page and this weekly email is posted on both these sites..

If you would prefer to be removed from this email distribution list, just let me know and I will delete your name.

You will still be able to check my Blog or Facebook page each week to read this same eMail update. You will miss out on any "Reply All" comments from other members of the group.

Blog: http://ultimatestockfinder.blogspot.com/

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

Thanks,

John D.

All the Yahoo!Finance data is refreshed on Saturday morning into StockEvaluator.xls and contains over 1,800 company stocks. We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/

MutualFundEvaluator.xls is also updated weekly and currently contains over 300 mutual funds.

Run the Ctrl-T sort in StockEvaluator.xls to bring the companies to the top for

this week that I am doing more research on to confirm if they are a good buy for me.

Run the Ctrl-R sort in MutualFundEvaluator.xls to bring all the ViaSat 401K funds to

the top.

Here are the CNN links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes.

Dow Jones 30 Industrials

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/

NASDAQ

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/

S&P 500

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/

FTSE 100 (England)

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/ftse100/

Hang Seng (Hong Kong)

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/hang_seng/

DAX (Germany)

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/dax/

View the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance at: http://www.yahoo.com/

at the left side of screen: click "Finance" at upper right corner: click "My Y!"

Use our watchlist as a starting point to create your own watchlist in Yahoo Finance.

Download StockEvaluator.xls and MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheets at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Updates for Feb. 8, 2013

All,
Remember that next Tuesday Feb. 12 is the monthly meeting at my house. For ViaSat employees, Mutual Fund Evaluator.xls now has a worksheet "ViaSat 401K Fund Symbols" that shows the JP Morgan descriptive fund names and stock market symbols. The JP Morgan website is not very clear about what the symbols are for several of our 401K funds, so now you can easily look up the symbol for your funds and read how they are performing in the "MutualFundEvaluator" worksheet, and you can also use the stock symbol at Yahoo Finance to do more research on your 401K funds.

My Buys and Sells so far for February are:
Buys: None
Sells: Feb 4 AAPL PUT October2013 at Strike $430 Option price $36.00
Feb 7 VSAT Covered CALL Sep2013 at Strike$50 Option Price $4
Feb 8 RFMD Covered Call Aug2013 at Strike $5 Option Price $.75

Check out how I use Options (PUT's and CALL's) to help make more money off some of the stocks I buy and sell while still minimizing the risk to me.
Click on "Go to Investment Training Webpage" on the right hand side at www.UltimateStockFinder.com.

StockEvaluator.xls and Mutual FundEvaluator.xls are available on www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Let us know about any other stocks and mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets.

Like us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/UltimateStockFinder

Thanks,
John D.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Ultimate Stock Finder now has MutualFundEvaluator.xls

Ultimate Stock Finder now has added the MutualFundEvaluator.xls spreadsheet that contains fundamental value data on over 300 mutual funds. You can sort on the key data columns (expense ratio, dividend %, net yield %, 5-Year return, current price to 52 week low) to bring the best performing mutual funds to the top of the list for ease of finding which ones should be considered for your portfolio. Download MutualFundEvaluator.xls at http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/mutualfundevaluatorindex.html Also check out our Investment Training webpage for clearly written instructions on how to use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy and Sell. StockEvaluator.xls spreadsheet now has data on over 1,700 companies and more are added every week. Send an email to ultimatestockfinder@yahoo.com and tell us about any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to our evaluator spreadsheets