Sunday, March 2, 2014

Investment Idea Sharing March 1, 2014

This Week's Activity – March 1, 2014: 
This week, the world market indices were mixed, some up, some down, but none by much.

I still think the markets are overpriced but continue to look for good values on individual stocks of fundamentally valuable companies. 

Two manufacturers of RF integrated circuits that go into cell phones, RFMD and TriQuint, announced on Tuesday that they will merge in late 2014. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/triquint-rfmd-merger-equals-205504969.html

My wife and I work as a team in managing our retirement investments, researching and discussing stock and mutual fund choices before placing an order.  Sometimes we don’t agree, and have to do more research to get enough facts to change one of our minds.  Last week was one of those times.  My wife is tired of waiting for the Fed to raise interest rates, and she wanted to buy Vanguard Tax Free Municipal Bond VWLTX which pays a Federal tax free interest rate of 3.99%.  For the past year, I have been expecting the Fed to raise rates, which should cause prices on bond mutual funds to go down.  I expect that most bond funds will go down about 5% from today’s current prices as the Fed lets the 10 Year rate go back up to a more normal 3.5% from the current rate of 2.66%.  If that 5% share price drop happens, then this 3.99% return will be swamped out by the 5% drop in share price over the next year.  My wife believes that the Vanguard fund will not go down by that much and she wants to start receiving the nice tax free dividend.    

Here is the 10 year chart for VWLTX.  Note that VWLTX dipped to $10.80 on Sept. 2, 2013.
But, I did not buy because I was waiting for $10.50, which never happened.  My wife told me I was being too greedy, because after touching $10.80 on Sept. 2, VWLTX rocketed back up 4.5% to the $11.29 that we paid for it on Thursday.  If VWLTX turns and goes back down to my target of $10.50, we will buy more. 

Visit our website: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ for more investing ideas, links, training, tools and information.

Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values for this week:

StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy. 
View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/short_list_12_criteria.JPG

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are:  Short List would not run this week due to web look up problems.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are: Volatility Sort would not run this week due to web look up problems.   

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. 
Mutual Fund Short List would not run this week due to web look up problems. 
Last Week’s list had 34 funds.  All are Bond funds, which are all still 5 to 9% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think the bond prices will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels which mean 10 Year Bond interest rate of at least 3.5% compared to today’s 10 year rate of 2.6%. 


Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, March 11, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date: 
Buy Price:  
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Mutual Fund BUYs for This Week:
Fund Symbol: VWLTX
Buy Date:  2/27/2014
Buy Price:  $11.29
Target Sell Price: (None) Long Term Hold due to 3.99% dividend

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells/Buys for This Week:
I Bought to Close this Cash Secured PUT that I had sold on Jan. 6, 2014 at $2.35/share
Option:  
Stock Symbol:
Buy to Close Date:
Expiration Date:
Strike Price:
Option Price:

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download all Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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