Saturday, August 24, 2013

Investment Idea Sharing for August 24, 2013

This Week's Activity – August 24, 2013:
This week, we have added 2 new fields in Mutual Fund Evaluator, 10 Year Average Return, and Bond Duration.  10 Year Return will give a longer term view that spans the crash of 2008-09.  Bond Duration is a measure of bond price volatility relative to central bank interest rate changes.  In simple terms, Bond Duration is the percentage the price of the bond will change when there is a 1% change in the interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds. 
Here is the Investopedia definition of Bond Duration:  http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/empirical_duration.asp  

This week, the Dow ended at 15,010 down from 15,081 last week.  The market has been staying around 15,000 since May 7.  See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

I am still expecting to see a 15% drop in the world markets.  But, I cannot predict when this drop will happen, so while I wait, I continue to look for companies with good fundamental financial values that are near their 52 week lows.  My goal is to buy good companies whenever they are down.

StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.  This week 13 companies are on the short list.  I researched three of them.

ZA is a fashion designer based in Shanghai with over 1,300 stores in China.  I read their news articles and viewed their website, but can’t find why they are down.  They have only been a public company since early 2011, and have gone down consistently since going public. 

CHS is Chico’s FAS, is a women’s clothing retailer, with over 1,350 stores in the USA. Currently at $15.75, CHS hit a new 52 week low this week of $15.48.  Their quarterly earnings call is on Aug. 28.  Wall Street is not expecting good news from CHS.  P/B is a little high at 2.3 and Goodwill to Equity also a little high at 34%.  CHS is still way above their 2 year low of $9.94 and pays a 1.4% dividend.  I am watching to see if they will go any lower after the earnings call.

OFIX is a medical implant company based on Curacao in Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean.  The news headlines about OFIX mention some class actions suits and late filing of NASDAQ forms, so I do not consider them as a safe company to buy.

SSI is Stage Stores, an off-price department store similar to Ross (ROST).  SSI was down this week because they missed Wall Street’s quarterly expectations.  SSI sales were only up 4%, Profits up 11%, full year revenue forecast was lowered to only 1%.  But Wall Street was expecting more.  At $19.98 / share, SSI is still way above their 2 year low of $11.22, and P/E is high at 20, but their financials all look good and they pay a 2.2% dividend.  I am watching to see if they will go any lower.

Volatility” sort shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ;
Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.  This week’s list has 8 companies. 
BTH, I discussed in last weeks email. 

AEO is American Eagle Outfitters a retail fashion store similar to Abercrombie&Fitch.  Both of these fashion companies were down a LOT this week on poor sales and profits for the current quarter.  There is a long time before the Christmas shopping season gets rolling, so I am waiting for a lower price before considering a buy of AEO. 


Always check the values from any website before you actually place a buy order, because mistakes in data happen.   
MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 39 funds.  They are all Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates.  I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys in hopes they can go even lower.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, September 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for Last Week:
Buy   Company   Buy
Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell
----- ---------   -----  ------------
none

Here are my Stock SELLs for Last Week:
Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy
Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date
-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------
none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:
I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  
Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    
------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------
None

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,
John D.
______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:
At "Stock Evaluator", download various pre-sorted views of this week's StockEvaluator spreadsheet.  All the financial data is refreshed on Friday night into StockEvaluator which contains over 2,500 company stocks.  We will add any company you would like to the list. Download "StockEvaluator spreadsheet" at: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ 
Also, you can sign in and view the Ultimate Stock Finder watchlist on Yahoo Finance

At “Mutual Fund Evaluator” download this weeks MutualFundEvaluator spreadsheet.
MutualFundEvaluator is also updated weekly and currently contains over 800 mutual funds.

Run the various Ctrl-_ sort commands in StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator to bring the best companies to the top based on their key financial values. 

Also, View our YouTube training videos to learn how to use StockEvaluator and MutualFundEvaluator.

At "Training" read more information on how we do our investments.
   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”
   "How We Use PUTs and CALLs to Minimize Risk and Increase Profit on Each Buy & Sell"
   "S&P 500 Total Return Comparison" spreadsheet for 25 year comparisons of many funds
   "Compare Annuity Returns, Expenses and Death Benefit v.s. Managing it Yourself"

At "Links" you can find our favorite links for good investing information including:
   Screener for New 52 week lows
   Screener for Good Fundamental Values
   Screener for Stocks with High Volatility
   Links that show current P/E values for the major worldwide indexes. 
   Current Prices and 52 week ranges for major commodities

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