Investment Idea Sharing for August 31, 2013

This Week's Activity – August 31, 2013:

This week, the Dow ended at 14,810 down from 15,010 last week.  The market has been staying around 15,000 since May 7.  See the Dow chart here: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=%5Edji;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

I am still expecting to see a 15% drop in the world markets.  But, I cannot predict when this drop will happen, so while I wait, I continue to look for companies with good fundamental financial values that are near their 52 week lows.  My goal is to buy good companies whenever they are down.

Last week I found CIG (CEMIG a large electric utility in Brazil).  CIG operates 59 hydroelectric plants, 3 thermoelectric, 3 wind farms, owned 13,670 miles of transmission lines and 308,466 miles of distribution lines.  CIG has 7 red cells on StockEvaluator.xls so they do not show up on the “Short List”.  But, Yahoo Finance shows CIG as paying no dividend, my research at the CIG website showed CIG actually pays about an 8% dividend as recently as July 2013.  Their dividend is not guaranteed but is calculated as a percentage of profit and paid about twice a year.  CIG has Debt-to-Equity of 120% which is higher than my goal of 50%, but considerably LOWER than most of the other Utilities tracked in StockEvaluator.  Also, CIG is back to a 5 year low, but when they were under $8/share back in 2008-09, their revenues were about 30% lower.  Due to their high red cell count, Ultimate Stock Finder cannot recommend them to you as a good fundamental buy, but I decided to buy them this week after reading more of their news and company facts.  Due to their current high dividend, I am viewing them as a Buy and Hold, so my target sell price is $11.00, which they were at as recently as May 2013.  But if they do not go back up, I will hold them as long as they continue to pay the good dividend.

Here are some good links for CIG if you want to do more research to decide for yourself.

Yahoo Finance Profile:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CIG+Profile

Yahoo Finance 10 Year Interactive Stock Price Chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CIG+Interactive#symbol=cig;range=20021205,20130829;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Y Charts 5 Year Revenue Chart:

http://ycharts.com/companies/CIG/revenues_ttm

Company Factsheet from CIG websheet:  http://cemig.infoinvest.com.br/static/enu/porque_investir_cemig.asp?idioma=enu

Zacks News story on most recent quarterly results (Aug. 14, 2013): http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cemigs-q2-earnings-y-y-124502751.html

StockEvaluator “Short List” shows only companies that are within 5% of their 52 week low AND have less than 5 Red cells.  This week 16 companies are on the short list.  I researched four of them.

SSI is Stage Stores, an off-price department store similar to Ross (ROST).  SSI was down this week because sales were only up 4%, Profits up 11%, full year revenue forecast was lowered to only 1%.  But Wall Street was expecting better.  At $18.63 / share, SSI is still way above their 2 year low of $11.22, and P/E is high at 21.2, but their financials all look good and they pay a 2.5% dividend.  I am not willing to buy them when they are so far above their 2 year low because I think the next market drop will drag them lower.

CHS is Chico’s FAS, is a women’s clothing retailer, with over 1,350 stores in the USA. Currently at $15.60, CHS hit a new 52 week low this week of $15.27.  Their quarterly earnings report was on Aug. 28, where they reported profits down 15% from last year, sales up 1.2% over last year, opened 112 new stores, but comparable store sales (open more than a year) fell 2.6%.  Wall Street was not expecting good news from CHS, so their stock did not drop much from last week.  P/B is a little high at 2.3 and Goodwill to Equity also a little high at 34%.  They pay a 1.4% dividend.  CHS is still way above their 2 year low of $9.94 and I am NOT willing to pay this much over their 2 year low.

FL is Foot Locker.  At $32.20 they are near their 52 week low of $31.07, but nowhere near their 2 year low of $17.79.

CAJ is Canon.  At $29.90, they are near their 52 week low of $29.81, and also near their price on March 23, 2009.  Their 10 year low was $22.05 on March 2, 2009.   Here is a link to their 10 year stock price chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAJ+Interactive#symbol=caj;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Canon is a Japanese company and most Japanese companies are up by double digit percentages since last November when Japan elected a new Prime Minister and he started devaluing the Yen.  This devaluation caused the Nikkei 225 index to go from 8,676 on Nov. 12, 2012 to 13,388 on Aug. 30, 2013.  Two Japanese companies that did not follow this upward trend are Canon (CAJ) and Nikon (NINOY).  The only reason I can find for these two companies to be down is the lagging camera sales due to so many smartphones now having cameras. 

Here is a good article discussing this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1657162-look-to-canon-for-an-excellent-yield-and-upside?source=yahoo    I would like to buy Canon and am keeping an eye on them, in case they drop more with an overall market drop.  Any of your ideas on this would be appreciated.  I also ran a special sort with StockEvaluator comparing CAJ with their 9 closest competitors.  Here is the link for you to download this special Canon comparison spreadsheet: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_canon_comparison.xls

“Volatility” sort shows only companies that have: Average Daily Price Volatility >3% ;

Within 5% of their 52 week low ; Less than 6 Red cells and Profit >0%.  This week’s list has 8 companies.  The first one on the volatility list is SSI (read about it above in “Short List”).

Always double check the values from any website before you actually place a buy order, because mistakes in data do happen.   

MutualFundEvaluator “Short List” shows funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells.  This week’s list has 39 funds.  They are all Bond funds, which are continuing to go down in anticipation of The FED raising interest rates.  I am going to wait on making any bond fund buys in hopes they can go even lower.

You can download all these specially sorted spreadsheets at www.UltimateStockFinder.com

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:

Buy   Company   Buy

Date  Bought     Price    Target Sell

----- ---------   -----  ------------

8/29   CIG        $7.90     $10.50

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:

Sell   Company   Sell     Buy       Buy

Date    Sold        Price   Price     Date

-----  ---------   -------  -------  ------------

none

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for Last Week:

I only do Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs

Option  Sell    Stock    Strike   Expiration   Option  

Type    Date   Symbol  Price      Date         Price    

------  ------  --------  ------  ----------  --------

None

StockEvaluator and Mutual FundEvaluator spreadsheets are available for download at www.ultimatestockfinder.com

Remember to send me any other stocks or mutual funds that you would like to see added to the Evaluator spreadsheets, and any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share.

Thanks,

John D.

______________________________________________

Visit Our Website UltimateStockFinder.com for More Investing Ideas:

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   “Training Module 1 - Why Use StockEvaluator.xls  And How to Use It”

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