Sunday, February 2, 2014

Investment Idea Sharing Feb. 2, 2014

This Week's Activity – February 1, 2014: 
This week, the world market indices continued their downward trend on expectations the Federal Reserve will make a further cut to their bond buying stimulus program, by as much as $10 billion per month.  Read more here: http://news.yahoo.com/wall-street-week-ahead-stocks-may-face-pain-000132861--sector.html
I still think the markets are overpriced but continue to look for good values on individual stocks of good solid companies. 

Last week I started a discussion of ‘The Total Money Makeover’ book by Dave Ramsey.  Step 4 of his 7 step process is to start saving 15% of your income for retirement.  Dave recommends your retirement investments consist of common stock mutual funds in these proportions:
 25% Value / Large Cap / Blue Chip funds
 25% Growth / Mid Cap / S&P 500 Index funds
 25% International
 25% Aggressive Growth / Small Cap / Emerging market funds

I also have some bond funds in my portfolio because I really like the steady interest income that bonds provide, and because bonds funds keep me more diversified than being completely in stocks.

You can use our ‘Mutual Fund Evaluator’ spreadsheet to screen for each of these 4 types of funds by selecting Row 20 and then using the ‘Data’ – ‘Filter’ - ‘Auto Filter’ Excel function.  Set the ‘Auto Filter’ drop down at Column B to ‘Custom’ – ‘Category’ – ‘Contains’ and then enter one of the key words for the type of funds you are screening for, such as:  ‘Value’ or ‘Growth’. 
Use the ‘and’ option to further limit your screening key words.
See our ‘Auto Filter’ training video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFr0LSR0rwE

We got our copy of Dave’s book from the library for free, but the information he provides is extremely valuable, yet very common sense.  I recommend this book.  Please let me know if you have read it.

Visit our website: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/ for more investing ideas, links, training, tools and information.

Summary Table of Worldwide Market Index Closing values for this week:

This week I sold PUT’s on CAJ and AAPL.  See the details below in (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week.  
CAJ closed this week at $29.17 which is near their 5 year low.  They have excellent fundamentals and I think the market is overly worried about the loss of Canon’s camera business volume to cameraphones. 
See the Yahoo 5 year chart for CAJ:

AAPL closed this week at $500 which is down $55 from a week ago.  On Monday AAPL released flat quarterly profits and a weak forecast for next quarter and the market pounded them.  I think AAPL is being overly punished.



StockEvaluator ‘Short List’
‘Short List’ screens using 12 fundamental value limits that I want to see in a stock before considering it as a possible buy. 
View our training video that shows how to enter your preferred values for each of these ‘Short List’ screening limits:

View the ‘Short List’ screening criteria and target limit values here: http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/short_list_12_criteria.JPG

Stocks on the ‘Short List’ list this week are:  CAJ, KYO, CVX, PTR, UMC, CHU, CHA, DCM, ELP.

Stock Evaluator ‘Volatility Sort’
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ have Current Price <5% above 52 week low, Volatility >3%, Profit>0%, <6 Red cells in Stock Evaluator.xls. 
Stocks on the ‘Volatility Sort’ this week are: HMST, INTX, ENZN, STRA, SODA, UVE, ROSE, GMAN, HGG, RCII.   

MutualFundEvaluator ‘Short List’
Mutual Funds that are within 3% of their 52 week low AND have less than 3 Red cells. 
This week’s list has 38 funds.  All are Bond funds, which are all still 3 to 8% above their lows from 2006 to 2008 before The FED dropped interest rates to bring the U.S. out of the recession.  When interest rates go down, bond prices go up, and when interest rates go up, bond prices go down.  These bond funds only pay a 3 to 4% annual dividend and I think the bond prices will go down another 3 to 4% when The FED finally lets interest rates go back to historic levels which mean 10 Year Bond interest rate of at least 3.5% compared to today’s 10 year rate of 2.67%.  I will continue to wait before buying any bond funds because I do not want to lose a whole year’s worth of interest if I buy back in too soon.

The top two funds on this week’s short list are BCOSX and MWTRX.
Here are their 10year charts to show why I am still waiting to buy.
MWTRX:

BCOSX:

Next Monthly Meeting 2nd Tuesday of every Month:
Tuesday, February 11, 2014 , 7:30 PM at my house. 

Here are my Stock BUYs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Buy Date: 
Buy Price:  
Target Sell Price:

Here are my Stock SELLs for This Week:
Stock Symbol:
Sell Date:
Sell Price:
Buy Price:
Buy Date:

Here are my Option (CALL or PUT) Sells for This Week:
I only Sell Covered CALLs or Cash Secured PUTs
Option:  Cash Secured PUT
Stock Symbol: AAPL
Sell Date: 1/30/2014
Expiration Date: 1/20/2015
Strike Price: $500
Option Price: $53.30

Option: Cash Secured PUT
Stock Symbol: CAJ
Sell Date: 1/27/2014
Expiration Date: 6/21/2014
Strike Price: $30.00
Option Price: $1.70

Visit www.ultimatestockfinder.com to download all Stock Evaluator and Mutual Fund Evaluator spreadsheets, read training articles and check out all our web links for investing information.

Please remember to send me any other investing ideas, information or questions that you want to share with the group.

Thanks,
John D.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any of the stocks or mutual funds mentioned in this article unless clearly stated above. We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article.  Please see our full legal disclaimer at:  http://www.ultimatestockfinder.com/stockevaluator_disclaimer.html
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